Thursday 8 October 2026 · /ES (December Contract)

10/8 Trade Plan

Bias · Bearish below 7816 (Wednesday low); neutral back above 7833 Breakdown → Retest

Key levels

Wednesday high / overnight lower high7858–7859.5

30M swing low, back inside Wednesday's structure7832

Wednesday low, broken overnight7816

overnight low7803

1H swing high, bottom of the demand zone7793

50DMA (20DMA 7761)7771

Context

Wednesday traded 7815.75–7859.5, swept under the 7829 breakout base and recovered to close at 7851. Overnight opened at 7850.75, made a lower high at 7858.25 under Wednesday's 7859.5 and sold on negative delta (-5374) through Wednesday's low to 7802.75. At 07:30 ES is 7814.5, just under that broken low, and the highs since the 7897.5 30-day high are all lower (7884.5, 7877, 7859.5, 7858.25). Below sits the 7793–7803 zone (overnight low, 1H swing high), then the 50DMA 7771 and 20DMA 7761.

▼ Short Highest Probability

7816 Break & Retest Short

Trigger: Bounce into 7816–7820 (Wednesday's low, broken overnight) that stalls with sellers absorbing, then a 15m close back below 7814. No shorting at 7805 into the overnight low.
Invalid: 15m acceptance above 7822, back inside Wednesday's range.
Targets: 7803 → 7793 → 7771

Structural invalidation 7833

▲ Long Second Opportunity

7803 Sweep & Reclaim Long

Trigger: Flush into 7793–7803 that sweeps the overnight low, finds responsive buying and reclaims, then a 15m close back above 7804.
Invalid: 15m acceptance below 7790, under the zone.
Targets: 7816 → 7832

▼ Short Only If

7859 Lower-High Rejection Short

Trigger: Only if ES reclaims 7833: a rally into 7855–7860 (Wednesday high, overnight lower high) that stalls with sellers absorbing, then a 15m close back below 7854.
Invalid: 15m acceptance above 7863; the lower-high sequence is broken above 7877.
Targets: 7832 → 7816

Avoid

Shorting 7803–7810 into the overnight low. Price is sitting there at 07:30; that is where demand gets tested, not where it breaks.
Trading 7820–7855, the middle between Wednesday's low and high, once ES is back inside it.
Treating the 20/50DMA (7761–7771) as a trade level on the way down. It is a target and a magnet.
Stops right on 7816 or 7803. Recent edges were swept by 2–3 ticks before they turned.

Focus · if → then

7816 retest fails → short → 7803 → 7793 → 7771 (50DMA)
7803 swept and reclaimed → long → 7816 → 7832
Reclaim and hold 7833 → breakdown has failed → 7859 is the fade

Today's reminder

The breakout base failed overnight; 7816 is now the line it has to get back above.

How it played out

Not scored yet. Every plan is checked against what the market actually did, and nothing is edited after the fact.

Get tomorrow's plan before the open.

Free, every trading day. Plans go out by email and stay here in the archive.

No signals, no spam. Prefer chat? Join the Discord.

Drawn with

RAIN High-Probability Reaction Levels$30 →RAIN Break & Retest Footprint (ES)$50 →

Earlier plans

10/77829 Breakout Base Hold Long 10/67847.5 Break & Retest Long 10/57749–7754 Demand Hold Long (prior day low + 50DMA)10/27767–7786 Rejection Short