★ Highest Probability
7767–7786 Rejection Short
- Trigger
- Push into 7767–7786 that stalls with sellers absorbing, then a 15m close back below 7765.
- Target
- 7743 → 7724 → 7708
- Invalidation
- 15m acceptance above 7786.
Friday 2 October 2026 · /ES (December Contract)
10/2 Trade Plan
Bias · Neutral, fade 7767–7786 supply, buy 7708 demand
Range: Overnight Rally Into Supply
Key levels
7786–7782Resistance · range top / supply
7767.75Resistance · 1H lower high
7765.75Resistance · overnight high
7743–7737Support · 50DMA / 20DMA chop zone (prior day high 7741)
7723Support · overnight low
7708–7705Support · demand
Context
Thursday flushed to 7672.75 and recovered to close at 7726, inside a 7672.75–7741.25 day. Overnight held 7723 and rallied on positive delta to 7765.75, clearing the prior day high and both the 20DMA (7737) and 50DMA (7743). At 07:30 ES sits at 7764, right under the 7767.75–7786 supply that has capped every rally this week with lower highs (7786, 7782, 7767.75). The 7737–7743 moving-average zone is chop, not an edge: fade the supply on rejection, buy the 7708 demand on a hold.
Second Opportunity
7708 Demand Hold Long
- Trigger
- Flush into 7708–7705 that holds with responsive buying, then a 15m close back above 7712.
- Target
- 7724 → 7741
- Invalidation
- Acceptance below 7700, under the demand zone.
Only If
7741 + 20DMA Reclaim Long
- Trigger
- Unlikely — the 7737–7743 zone is chop. Only a pullback that holds the zone cleanly, then a 15m close back above 7745.
- Target
- 7765 → 7782
- Invalidation
- Acceptance below 7733, under the moving-average zone.
Avoid
- Trading inside the 7737–7743 moving-average chop zone.
- Buying into 7767–7786 supply without acceptance above 7786.
- Stops right on 7705 or 7786. Both edges got swept by 2–3 ticks this week before turning.
Focus · if → then
- 7767–7786 rejects → short → 7743 → 7724 → 7708
- 7708 holds → long → 7724 → 7741
- Accept above 7786 → shorts off → 7810 → 7848
Today's reminder
The edges are 7786 and 7708. The moving averages are the middle.
How it played out
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