Thursday 1 October 2026 · /ES (December Contract)

10/1 Trade Plan

Bias · Neutral, fade the edges of 7705–7786 Range: Lower Highs Into Supply, Demand Holding

Key levels

7786–7782Resistance · prior day high / supply

7767.75Resistance · overnight high

7738Resistance · 20DMA + 50DMA (mid-range)

7719Support · pullback zone

7708–7705Support · prior day low

7671Support · 100DMA

Context

Tuesday broke above 7771 to 7782 and failed, closing at 7713 near the lows; overnight made a lower high at 7767.75 and held 7705. This morning the demand did the work: 7705 held at 04:00 and 7719 held twice after it, each swept by 2–3 ticks before buyers stepped in, so stops belong below the zone, not on the line. ES now sits at 7742, mid-range around the 20DMA and 50DMA (both 7738), so the trades are at the edges: fade the 7767–7782 supply, buy the 7719–7705 demand.

★ Highest Probability

7767–7782 Rejection Fade Short

Trigger: Rally into 7767–7782 that stalls under the prior day high, then a 15m close back below 7767.75 or a retest of it that fails from below.
Target: 7738 → 7719 → 7705
Invalidation: 15m acceptance above 7786.

Second Opportunity

7719 Pullback Long

Trigger: Pullback into 7719 (7708–7705 as the deeper fallback) that holds with responsive buying, then a 15m close back above 7722.
Target: 7738 → 7767
Invalidation: Acceptance below 7703, under the demand zone.

Only If

7786 Break Above & Hold Long

Trigger: Acceptance above 7786, then a retest that holds from above.
Target: 7810 → 7848
Invalidation: Back below 7782 and held.

Avoid

Trading the middle, 7722–7762, around the moving averages.
Stops sitting right on 7719 or 7705 — both were swept by 2–3 ticks today before holding.
Buying into 7767–7782 supply without acceptance above 7786.

Focus · if → then

7767–7782 rejects → short → 7738 → 7719 → 7705
7719 holds → long → 7738 → 7767
Accept above 7786 → shorts off → 7810 → 7848

Today's reminder

The edges pay, the middle doesn't. Wait for 7767 or 7719.

How it played out

Not scored yet. Every plan is checked against what the market actually did, and nothing is edited after the fact.

Get tomorrow's plan before the open.

Free, every trading day. Plans go out by email and stay here in the archive.

No signals, no spam. Prefer chat? Join the Discord.

Drawn with

RAIN High-Probability Reaction Levels$30 →RAIN Break & Retest Footprint (ES)$50 →

Earlier plans

9/307771 Double-Top Rejection Short 9/297758 Reclaim Retest Long 9/287753 + 20DMA Zone Hold Long 9/257783–7785 Higher-Low Hold Long