★ Highest Probability
7758 Reclaim Retest Long
- Trigger
- Pullback into 7759–7758 that holds from above, then a 15m close back above 7763.
- Target
- 7771 → 7783 → 7810
- Invalidation
- Back below the 20DMA / 7744 and held.
Tuesday 29 September 2026 · /ES (December Contract)
9/29 Trade Plan
Bias · Bullish above 7758, neutral below
Overnight Sweep & Reclaim → Retest of 7758
Key levels
7814–7810Resistance · 1H swing highs
7800Resistance · 1H swing high
7786–7783Resistance · supply / Monday high
7771Resistance · ON high
7759–7758Support · reclaimed, retest zone
7744Support · 20DMA
7732Support · 50DMA
7726–7716Support · demand / ON sweep low
Context
ES closed Monday at 7746.5. Overnight it swept below Monday's low into the 7726–7716 demand, bounced hard, and by 08:00 had reclaimed 7758, printing 7770.75 on building net buying (overnight delta +2952). At 08:00 it sits at 7763, above the reclaim but under the new overnight high. The trade is a retest of 7758 that holds, not a chase into 7771. Above it the path is the 7783–7786 supply, then 7810–7814, and losing the 7716 sweep low turns the bounce into a failure.
Second Opportunity
7744 + 20DMA Reversal Long
- Trigger
- Deeper flush into 7746–7740, sharp rejection with responsive buying, then a 15m close back above 7750.
- Target
- 7758 → 7783 → 7810
- Invalidation
- Acceptance below the 50DMA / 7732.
Only If
7716 Breakdown
- Trigger
- Acceptance below the 7716 sweep low, then a failed retest from below.
- Target
- 7707 → 7670
- Invalidation
- Reclaim and hold above 7732.
Avoid
- Chasing 7763–7771 into the overnight high.
- Shorting into the 20DMA and 50DMA zone below.
- Buying into the 7783–7786 supply.
Focus · if → then
- 7758 retest holds → long → 7771 → 7783 → 7810
- Sharp reversal off 7744 → 7758 → 7783
- Lose 7716 → 7707 → 7670
Today's reminder
The reclaim happened. Now make it prove itself on the retest.
How it played out
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