Thursday 24 September 2026 · /ES (December Contract)

9/24 Trade Plan

Bias · Neutral between 7707 and 7741 (50DMA to 20DMA) Breakdown → Balance between the averages

Key levels

7779Resistance · overnight high

7759Resistance · prior-day low

7741Resistance · 20DMA

7720Support · 50DMA

7707Support · overnight low

7663Support · 100DMA

Context

ES lost Wednesday's low (7758.75) overnight, sliding from 7779 to 7707.25 before bouncing to 7730.75 at 07:30. Price now sits between the 50DMA (7720) and the 20DMA (7741). Overnight delta was net positive (+4,533) despite the drop. The day turns on whether the 7707–7720 zone holds as demand or the 7741–7759 zone caps as supply.

★ Highest Probability

7720 50DMA Hold Long

Trigger: Price tests the 7707–7720 zone, holds, then produces a 15m close back above 7720. Enter on the confirmed reclaim, not on the touch.
Target: 7741 → 7759 → 7779
Invalidation: Acceptance below 7707 (overnight low)

Second Opportunity

7741 20DMA Reclaim Long

Trigger: Price reclaims 7741 and holds above it; continuation through 7759 is the stronger confirmation. Take the reclaim and retest/hold, don't chase the first break.
Target: 7759 → 7779
Invalidation: Loss of 7720 after a failed reclaim

Only If

7741–7759 Rejection Short

Trigger: Price rallies into 7741–7759, fails to reclaim/hold it, then confirms by moving back below the rejection structure. Do not short the first touch.
Target: 7720 → 7707 → 7675 → 7663
Invalidation: Sustained acceptance above 7759

Avoid

7707–7741 is transition, no-man's-land: don't manufacture trades in the middle
Entering because price touched a zone: touch is information, not a signal
Chasing price between levels: if one setup doesn't trigger cleanly, wait for the next

Focus · if → then

7707–7720 holds + 7720 reclaimed → long → 7741 → 7759 → 7779
7741 reclaimed and held → long → 7759 → 7779
7741–7759 rejects and confirms → short → 7720 → 7707
7707 accepted below + 50DMA fails → short → 7675 → 7663

Today's reminder

Don't trade the level. Trade what price does at the level.

How it played out

Not scored yet. Every plan is checked against what the market actually did, and nothing is edited after the fact.

Get tomorrow's plan before the open.

Free, every trading day. Plans go out by email and stay here in the archive.

No signals, no spam. Prefer chat? Join the Discord.

Drawn with

RAIN High-Probability Reaction Levels$30 →RAIN Break & Retest Footprint (ES)$50 →

Earlier plans

9/237822 Demand Hold Long 9/227850 Break & Retest Long 9/217738 + 20DMA Retest Long 9/187700 / 20DMA Hold Long