★ Highest Probability
7700 / 20DMA Hold Long
- Trigger
- Pullback holds 7700/20DMA and reclaims.
- Target
- 7740 → 7780
- Invalidation
- Acceptance below 7694.
Friday 18 September 2026 · /ES (December Contract)
9/18 Trade Plan
Bias · Bullish above 7700/20DMA
Range → Expansion
Key levels
7780Resistance
7740Resistance
7700Support · 20DMA
7694Support
Context
ES confirmed a higher low above 7700/20DMA overnight and pushed into 7740. Vince sees 7700 as the key long area again, while a clean hold above 7740 opens 7780. Below 7694, short-term downside pressure returns.
Second Opportunity
7740 Hold Long
- Trigger
- Break above 7740 and hold.
- Target
- 7780
- Invalidation
- Lose 7740 after reclaim.
Only If
7694 Breakdown Short
- Trigger
- Clean break below 7694 + failed retest.
- Target
- Short-term downside / next support
- Invalidation
- Reclaim 7694.
Avoid
- Chasing between 7700–7740.
- Shorting directly into 7700.
- Forcing trades after a failed breakout.
Focus · if → then
- 7700 holds → 7740 → 7780
- 7740 holds → 7780
- 7694 fails → short-term downside
Today's reminder
7700 is the level. 7740 is the breakout. Don't overtrade the middle.
How it played out
The setup triggered, but neither the target nor the invalidation was reached by the close.
triggered, but neither level was reached by the close. Measured from m15 bars, ESZ6, confirm entry, touch-based invalidation. Not a fill, and not a return: see how this is measured.
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