★ Highest Probability
7702 + 20DMA Reclaim Long
- Trigger
- Reclaim and hold above 7702.
- Target
- 7710 → 7740
- Invalidation
- Lose 7702 after reclaim.
Thursday 17 September 2026 · /ES (December Contract)
9/17 Trade Plan
Bias · Neutral → Bullish above 7710
Range / Decision Zone
Key levels
7740Resistance
7702Resistance · → 7710
7689–7690Resistance
7667–7668Support · 50DMA
7616Support · ONL
Context
Yesterday's FOMC produced a major flush to 7575, but ES recovered aggressively and is now back above the 50DMA at 7667–7668. We're essentially back in yesterday's range, with 7702/20DMA as the key upside test. The overnight range is wide (7616–7690), so the plan is simple: hold 50DMA and push toward 20DMA, or lose 50DMA and reassess.
Second Opportunity
7667–7668 50DMA Hold Long
- Trigger
- Pullback holds 50DMA with responsive buying.
- Target
- 7689 → 7702
- Invalidation
- Acceptance below 7667.
Only If
7667 Breakdown
- Trigger
- Clean break below 7667 + failed retest.
- Target
- 7616 → 7575
- Invalidation
- Reclaim 7667.
Avoid
- Chasing the middle of 7667–7702.
- Assuming yesterday's FOMC move has to continue.
- Trading the overnight extremes without confirmation.
Focus · if → then
- 7667 holds → 7689 → 7702 → 7710
- 7702 reclaims → 7740
- 7667 fails → 7616 → 7575
Today's reminder
Yesterday was the volatility. Today is about structure. Respect the 50DMA, wait for confirmation, and don't force the middle.
How it played out
The primary setup triggered and reached its first target.
triggered, then reached 7710. Measured from m15 bars, ESZ6, confirm entry, close beyond the level invalidation. Not a fill, and not a return: see how this is measured.
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