★ Highest Probability
7738 + 20DMA Retest Long
- Trigger
- Pullback into 7738 (20DMA + Friday's overnight high) holds, then reclaims with buyers absorbing.
- Target
- 7769 → 7785 → 7818
- Invalidation
- Acceptance below 7711 (50DMA, back inside Friday's range).
Monday 21 September 2026 · /ES (December Contract)
9/21 Trade Plan
Bias · Bullish above 7738/20DMA
Breakout → Extended
Key levels
7818Resistance · 9/4 high
7785Resistance · 9/8 high
7769Resistance · O/N high
7738Support · 20DMA
7722Support · Shelf
7711Support · 50DMA
Context
ES gapped up overnight from 7722 to 7769 on steady buying (+11,973 delta), clearing Friday's 7675–7718 range and Friday's overnight high at 7739. Price now sits 26 points above the 20DMA and in open air under the 7775–7785 shelf, 190 points off the 9/16 low. The level to work is the retest of 7738, not the extension. Above 7785 is a separate breakout.
Second Opportunity
7785 Break & Retest Long
- Trigger
- 15-minute close above 7785, then a retest that holds.
- Target
- 7796 → 7818 → 7834
- Invalidation
- Acceptance back below 7775.
Only If
7722 Breakdown Short
- Trigger
- Loses 7738, accepts below 7722, then a failed retest of 7722 from below.
- Target
- 7711 → 7699 → 7680
- Invalidation
- Reclaim 7738.
Avoid
- Chasing longs between 7764 and 7785.
- Fading the overnight high with no failed breakout.
- Buying 7738 before it has held.
Focus · if → then
- 7738 holds → 7769 → 7785 → 7818
- 7785 breaks and holds → 7796 → 7818
- 7722 fails → 7711 → 7699
Today's reminder
The level is 26 points away. Let price come to 7738, or don't trade.
How it played out
The primary setup never confirmed, so there was no trade.
price never reached 7738. Measured from m15 bars, ESZ6, confirm entry, touch-based invalidation. Not a fill, and not a return: see how this is measured.
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