★ Highest Probability
7753 + 20DMA Zone Hold Long
- Trigger
- Flush into 7757–7743, hold with responsive buying, then a 15m close back above 7757.
- Target
- 7770 → 7783 → 7803
- Invalidation
- Acceptance below the 20DMA / 7743.
Monday 28 September 2026 · /ES (December Contract)
9/28 Trade Plan
Bias · Neutral, bearish below 7783
Overnight Pullback → Test of Friday's Low
Key levels
7847Resistance · 30-day high
7815Resistance · Friday high
7803Resistance · ON high / Friday close
7783Resistance · Thursday high, lost overnight
7757–7753Support · ON low / Friday low
7743Support · 20DMA
7730Support · 50DMA
7707Support · 1H swing low
Context
ES closed Friday at 7804.75, lost the 7783 higher-low overnight and sold down to 7757 with net selling (overnight delta -2773). At 07:30 it sits at 7770, between the 7757–7743 demand zone and 7783, which is now resistance. The structure turns on 7757–7743, where Friday's low, the overnight low and the 20DMA stack. Holding it opens a bounce into 7783, and losing it opens the 50DMA at 7730.
Second Opportunity
7783 Rejection Short
- Trigger
- Rally into 7781–7783, rejection, then a 15m close back below the zone.
- Target
- 7770 → 7757
- Invalidation
- Acceptance above 7783.
Only If
7743 Breakdown
- Trigger
- Acceptance below the 20DMA / 7743, then a failed retest from below.
- Target
- 7730 → 7707
- Invalidation
- Reclaim and hold above 7757.
Avoid
- Trading the middle between 7760 and 7780 without a reaction at a zone.
- Buying the first touch of 7757 before it holds.
- Shorting into the 7743–7730 moving-average stack without acceptance below it.
Focus · if → then
- 7757–7743 holds → long → 7770 → 7783 → 7803
- 7783 rejects → short → 7770 → 7757
- Accept above 7783 → bearish lean off, 7803 next
- Lose 7743 → 7730 → 7707
Today's reminder
The middle of the range isn't a trade. Wait for the edges.
How it played out
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