★ Highest Probability
7783–7785 Higher-Low Hold Long
- Trigger
- Pullback into 7783–7785, hold, then 15m close back above the zone.
- Target
- 7810 → 7817 → 7850
- Invalidation
- Acceptance below 7743/7758.
Friday 25 September 2026 · /ES (December Contract)
9/25 Trade Plan
Bias · Bullish above 7783
Breakout → Retest
Key levels
7850Resistance
7817Resistance
7810Resistance
7799Resistance
7783–7785Support
7758–7743Support
7742Support · 20DMA
Context
ES reclaimed Thursday's high overnight and is holding above 7783.5. The bullish structure remains intact while price holds the 7782–7785 higher-low area, with 7743/7758 and the 20DMA as the deeper structural support. Above 7785, the next test is 7810/7817, with 7850 above that.
Second Opportunity
7758–7743 Support Hold Long
- Trigger
- Deeper pullback into 7758–7743, hold, then reclaim 7758 with responsive buying.
- Target
- 7783 → 7810 → 7817
- Invalidation
- Acceptance below the 20DMA / 7743.
Only If
7810–7817 Rejection Short
- Trigger
- Rally into 7810–7817, rejection, then failed reclaim/confirmation back below the zone.
- Target
- 7799 → 7783
- Invalidation
- Sustained acceptance above 7817.25.
Avoid
- Chasing the open above 7799.
- Don't trade the middle between 7785 and 7810 without a defined reaction.
Focus · if → then
- 7783–7785 holds → long → 7810 → 7817 → 7850
- 7758–7743 holds → long → 7783 → 7810
- 7810–7817 rejects → short → 7799 → 7783
- Lose 7743/20DMA → bullish thesis weakens materially
Today's reminder
Don't trade the level. Trade what price does at the level.
How it played out
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