★ Highest Probability
7771 Double-Top Rejection Short
- Trigger
- 15m close back below 7754 after the 7771 rejection, or a retest of 7758 that fails from below.
- Target
- 7744 → 7735 → 7719
- Invalidation
- Reclaim and hold above 7758.
Wednesday 30 September 2026 · /ES (December Contract)
9/30 Trade Plan
Bias · Neutral, bearish below 7771
Double Top at 7771 → Back Into the Range
Key levels
7786–7783Resistance · supply
7771Resistance · double top (Tue pre-open / today)
7758–7754Resistance · prior day high / range top
7744–7735Resistance · 20DMA / 50DMA band
7726Support · 30M swing low
7719–7712Support · ON low / prior day low
7707Support · 1H swing low
7670Support · 100DMA
Context
ES has printed lower highs for two sessions: 7786 on Monday, then 7770.75 before Tuesday's open, and Tuesday closed at 7732.5 inside a 7712–7758.5 day. After 08:00 this morning it broke above the 7758 range top, ran to 7771.25, one tick over Tuesday's 7770.75 high, and was rejected; at 08:55 it is back at 7758.5 (overnight delta +205). 7771 is now a double top, and the trade turns on whether ES slips back inside the 7712–7758 range, with the 20DMA (7744) and 50DMA (7735) below as the first magnets and the 7719–7712 demand beneath them.
Second Opportunity
7712 Demand Hold Long
- Trigger
- Flush into 7719–7712, hold with responsive buying, then a 15m close back above 7720.
- Target
- 7735 → 7744 → 7758
- Invalidation
- Acceptance below 7712.
Only If
7771 Break & Retest Long
- Trigger
- Acceptance above 7771, then a retest that holds from above.
- Target
- 7783 → 7810
- Invalidation
- Back below 7771 and held.
Avoid
- Buying 7758–7771 under the double top.
- Shorting into the 7719–7712 demand without acceptance below it.
- Trading inside the 7735–7744 moving-average band.
Focus · if → then
- Close back below 7754 → short → 7744 → 7735 → 7719
- 7719–7712 holds → long → 7735 → 7744 → 7758
- Accept above 7771 → shorts off → 7783 → 7810
Today's reminder
Two tests of 7771 failed. Short the rejection, not the middle.
How it played out
Not scored yet. Every plan is checked against what the market actually did, and nothing is edited after the fact.
Get tomorrow's plan before the open.
Free, every trading day. Plans go out by email and stay here in the archive.
No signals, no spam. Prefer chat? Join the Discord.