Tuesday 6 October 2026 · /ES (December Contract)

10/6 Trade Plan

Bias · Bullish above 7847.5, Monday's high and the 30-day high Breakout → Price Discovery

Key levels

7875Resistance · round number (no measured structure above)

7858.25Resistance · overnight high

7847.5Support · Monday high / 30-day high / 30M swing high

7829Support · overnight low (Monday close 7831.25, overnight open 7831.75)

7810.25Support · 1H swing high

7778.25Support · Monday low

Context

ES broke above Monday's 7847.5 high overnight. That is also the top of the 30-day range. At 07:30 it sits at 7857.75, right at the 7858.25 overnight high, on positive overnight delta (+4654). The overnight session ran 7829–7858.25 and opened at 7831.75, on top of Monday's 7831.25 close. The contract has no structure overhead, so 7875 and 7900 are round-number references, not measured levels. The 20DMA (7745.75) and 50DMA (7756) are about 100 points below and only come into play if the breakout fails.

★ Highest Probability

7847.5 Break & Retest Long

Trigger: Pullback into 7845–7850 (Monday high, 30-day high) that holds with responsive buying, then a 15m close back above 7850. Or, if no pullback comes: 15m acceptance above 7858.25 (overnight high) that holds on a retest. No chasing a break of 7858 without the retest.
Target: 7858 → 7875 → 7900
Invalidation: 15m acceptance back below 7845, inside Monday's range.

Second Opportunity

7847.5 Failed Breakout Short

Trigger: 15m acceptance back below 7845, then a retest of 7847.5 from below that holds as resistance with sellers absorbing.
Target: 7831 → 7810
Invalidation: Reclaim and 15m close back above 7858.25, the overnight high.

Only If

7829 Overnight Low Hold Long

Trigger: Only if the breakout fails and price flushes into 7829–7831 (overnight low, Monday close, overnight open), sweeps it by a few ticks and reclaims, then a 15m close back above 7832.
Target: 7847.5 → 7858
Invalidation: 15m acceptance below 7826, under the overnight low.

Avoid

Chasing longs at 7858 into new highs. There is nothing overhead to measure against, so wait for the retest.
Shorting just because ES is about 100 points above the 20DMA. Extended is not a signal. Only a failed breakout is.
Trading 7832–7845, the middle between the breakout level and the overnight low.
Stops right on 7847.5 or 7829. Last week's edges were swept by 2–3 ticks before they turned.

Focus · if → then

7847.5 holds on retest → long → 7858 → 7875 → 7900
7847.5 lost, retest fails → short → 7831 → 7810
Accept below 7826 → breakout is dead → 7810; lose 7810 → 7783 → 7778

Today's reminder

The breakout is not confirmed until a pullback into 7847.5 holds.

How it played out

Not scored yet. Every plan is checked against what the market actually did, and nothing is edited after the fact.

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Drawn with

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Earlier plans

10/57749–7754 Demand Hold Long (prior day low + 50DMA)10/27767–7786 Rejection Short 10/17767–7782 Rejection Fade Short 9/307771 Double-Top Rejection Short