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Monday 5 October 2026 · /ES (December Contract)

10/5 Trade Plan

Bias · Neutral inside 7754–7810, buy 7749–7754 demand, fade 7800–7810 supply Inside Day: Range Edges

Key levels

7810.25Resistance · prior day high / 30M swing high
7793Resistance · overnight high
7783.75Resistance · Friday's 30M lower high
7760.25Support · overnight low
7754–7748.6Support · prior day low / 50DMA / 30M swing lows
7737.6Support · 20DMA / 1H swing low 7737

Context

Friday cleared last week's 7786 supply, tagged 7810.25, and settled back to close at 7779 inside a 7754–7810.25 day. Overnight stayed inside that range, 7760.25–7793 on positive delta (+6995), and at 07:30 ES sits at 7780, the middle of both ranges. Lows are rising (7749, 7754, 7760.25) while highs are falling (7810.25, 7793, 7783.75), so it is compressing, and rejections at 7783.75 point to a test of demand first. The 50DMA (7748.6) sits just under the prior day low and the 20DMA (7737.6) under that, so they back the demand edge instead of sitting in the middle.

★ Highest Probability

7749–7754 Demand Hold Long (prior day low + 50DMA)

Trigger
Flush into 7754–7749 (prior day low 7754, 50DMA 7748.6, three 30M swing lows) that holds with responsive buying, then a 15m close back above 7756.
Target
7780 → 7793 → 7810
Invalidation
15m acceptance below 7745, under the 50DMA.

Second Opportunity

7810 Rejection Short

Trigger
Push into 7800–7810.25 that stalls with sellers absorbing under the prior day high, then a 15m close back below 7800.
Target
7780 → 7760 → 7754
Invalidation
15m acceptance above 7815, beyond the prior day high.

Only If

7737 + 20DMA Breakdown

Trigger
Only if the demand edge fails: 15m acceptance below 7735, then a retest of 7737 from below that holds as resistance.
Target
7720 → 7705
Invalidation
Reclaim and 15m close back above 7749.

Avoid

  • Trading 7765–7793. It is the middle of both the prior day and overnight ranges.
  • Shorting 7783.75 on its own. A rejection there is the tell that 7749 gets tested, not the trade.
  • Chasing a break of 7793 into 7810. The overnight high is not the edge.
  • Stops right on 7749 or 7810.25. Edges got swept by 2–3 ticks last week before turning.

Focus · if → then

  • 7754–7749 holds → long → 7780 → 7793 → 7810
  • 7800–7810 rejects → short → 7780 → 7760 → 7754
  • Accept below 7735 → longs off → 7720 → 7705

Today's reminder

The edges are 7810 and 7749. 7780 is the middle.

How it played out

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Drawn with

RAIN High-Probability Reaction Levels$30 →RAIN Break & Retest Footprint (ES)$50 →

Earlier plans

10/27767–7786 Rejection Short10/17767–7782 Rejection Fade Short9/307771 Double-Top Rejection Short9/297758 Reclaim Retest Long