Wednesday 7 October 2026 · /ES (December Contract)

10/7 Trade Plan

Bias · Neutral: bullish while 7829 holds, bearish on acceptance below 7821 Failed Extension → Breakout Retest

Key levels

7897.5Resistance · Tuesday high / 30-day high

7884.5Resistance · overnight high (lower high)

7860Resistance · Tuesday low, broken overnight

7829–7832Support · breakout base zone (Monday close, Tuesday overnight low)

7821Support · 30M swing low, bottom of the zone

7765Support · 50DMA (20DMA 7753)

Context

Tuesday's breakout ran to 7897.5, the 30-day high, then closed at 7873. Overnight gave it all back. ES opened at 7881.5, made a lower high at 7884.5 and sold off on heavy negative delta (-6508) through Tuesday's 7860.25 low. At 07:30 it sits at 7843.25, on the 7842 overnight low and just under Monday's 7847.5 breakout level. The structure turns on the 7821–7832 zone, which is the base of that breakout (Monday close 7831.25, Tuesday's overnight low 7829, a cluster of 30M swing lows). The 20DMA (7753) and 50DMA (7765) are about 80 points below and only come into play if that base fails.

★ Highest Probability

7829 Breakout Base Hold Long

Trigger: Flush into 7829–7832 that sweeps it by a few ticks, finds responsive buying and reclaims, then a 15m close back above 7833. No buying at 7843 just because it is lower than yesterday.
Target: 7847.5 → 7860 → 7884.5
Invalidation: 15m acceptance below 7826, under the zone.

Second Opportunity

7860 Failed Reclaim Short

Trigger: Rally back into 7858–7862 (Tuesday's low, broken overnight) that stalls with sellers absorbing, then a 15m close back below 7856.
Target: 7847.5 → 7832
Invalidation: 15m acceptance above 7870, back inside Tuesday's range.

Only If

7884.5 Lower-High Rejection Short

Trigger: Only if the base holds and ES reclaims 7860: a rally into 7882–7887 (the overnight lower high) that stalls with sellers absorbing, then a 15m close back below 7880.
Target: 7860 → 7847.5
Invalidation: 15m acceptance above 7890; the thesis is dead above 7897.5, the 30-day high.

Avoid

Trading 7834–7856, the middle between the breakout base and Tuesday's low. Price is sitting in it at 07:30.
Buying the dip at 7843 because ES made a 30-day high yesterday. The overnight session sold it on heavy delta; wait for 7829 to respond.
Shorting into 7829 after the overnight drop. That is where the base is tested, not where it breaks.
Stops right on 7829 or 7860. Recent edges were swept by 2–3 ticks before they turned.

Focus · if → then

7829 swept and reclaimed → long → 7847.5 → 7860 → 7884.5; stalls at 7884.5 → short → 7860
7860 retest fails → short → 7847.5 → 7832
Accept below 7821 → breakout has failed → 7810; lose 7810 → 7765 (50DMA)

Today's reminder

Yesterday's breakout is now being retested; 7829 decides whether it survived.

How it played out

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Drawn with

RAIN High-Probability Reaction Levels$30 →RAIN Break & Retest Footprint (ES)$50 →

Earlier plans

10/67847.5 Break & Retest Long 10/57749–7754 Demand Hold Long (prior day low + 50DMA)10/27767–7786 Rejection Short 10/17767–7782 Rejection Fade Short