Friday 9 October 2026 · /ES (December Contract)

10/9 Trade Plan

Bias · Neutral: fade 7850–7860 while the highs keep stepping down; bullish only on acceptance above 7860 Compression → Expansion

Key levels

30-day high7897.5

1H lower high7884.5

supply zone (Thursday high, overnight high 7853.5, Wednesday high)7850–7859.5

demand zone (overnight low 7817, Thursday close, Wednesday low)7815.75–7820.5

30M swing low7803

Thursday low (50DMA 7777, 20DMA 7767)7783

Context

Thursday traded 7783–7850 and closed at 7817.25. Overnight opened at 7820.5, held 7817 and rallied on positive delta (+3569) to 7853.5, just over Thursday's 7850 high but under Wednesday's 7859.5, another lower high in the run down from the 7897.5 30-day high (7884.5, 7859.5, 7858.25, 7853.5). At 07:30 ES is 7843.25, back under 7850 and squeezed between those lower highs and the higher lows at 7783 and 7817. The 50DMA (7777) and 20DMA (7767) sit below Thursday's low.

▼ Short Highest Probability

7860 Lower-High Fade Short

Trigger: Push into 7850–7860 (Thursday high, overnight high 7853.5, Wednesday high 7859.5) that stalls with sellers absorbing, then a 15m close back below 7848. No shorting at 7843 in the middle of the range.
Invalid: 15m acceptance above 7863, over the zone.
Targets: 7820 → 7803 → 7783

Structural invalidation 7866

▲ Long Second Opportunity

7817 Demand Zone Hold Long

Trigger: Flush into 7815.75–7820.5 that sweeps the overnight low by a few ticks, finds responsive buying and reclaims, then a 15m close back above 7821.
Invalid: 15m acceptance below 7812, under the zone.
Targets: 7837 → 7850 → 7859.5

▲ Long Only If

7860 Break & Retest Long

Trigger: Only if ES accepts above 7860 and breaks the lower-high sequence: a pullback into 7858–7862 that holds with buyers absorbing, then a 15m close back above 7863.
Invalid: 15m acceptance back below 7853, inside the old supply.
Targets: 7884.5 → 7897.5

Avoid

Trading 7822–7848, the middle between demand and supply. Price is in the upper part of it at 07:30.
Buying into 7850 because overnight delta was positive. The highs are still stepping down; a breakout needs acceptance above 7860 first.
Treating the 20/50DMA (7767–7777) as a trade level. They are targets and a magnet below 7783.
Stops right on 7859.5 or 7817. Recent edges were swept by 2–3 ticks before they turned.

Focus · if → then

7850–7860 stalls → short → 7820 → 7803 → 7783
7817 swept and reclaimed → long → 7837 → 7850
Accept above 7860 → lower highs broken → retest long → 7884.5 → 7897.5; lose 7815 → 7803 → 7783

Today's reminder

Lower highs are meeting higher lows; trade 7860 and 7817 and leave the middle alone.

How it played out

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Drawn with

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Earlier plans

10/87816 Break & Retest Short 10/77829 Breakout Base Hold Long 10/67847.5 Break & Retest Long 10/57749–7754 Demand Hold Long (prior day low + 50DMA)