Wednesday 4 November 2026 · /ES (December Contract)

11/4 Trade Plan

Bias · Neutral: fade 7693.75–7706 (Monday high + 100DMA) in the down cycle; bullish only on acceptance above the 100DMA V-Reversal → Test of 100DMA

Key levels

20DMA / 50DMA band7739.8–7750.3

broken 1H swing low7732.25

supply zone (Monday high, 100DMA 7705.8)7693.75–7706

broken 1H swing highs, retest shelf7656–7659

1H swing lows7635.5–7636.25

Tuesday high7623.75

Context

Election night: Tuesday traded 7576.5–7623.75 and closed 7596.25, then the overnight session sold from the 7610.25 open to 7490, 34 points above the 200DMA (7455.7), and reversed on heavy positive delta (+8197). At 07:30 ES is 7686, just under the 7687.75 overnight high after a 197-point rally that cleared Tuesday's high and the 7656–7659 swing highs. It is now pressing into 7693.75–7706: Monday's high, where a 123-point reversal began and a level that has capped ES twice, plus the 100DMA at 7705.8. Under the 100DMA, with the 20DMA (7739.8) still below the 50DMA (7750.3), the daily down cycle stands; a rejection here puts 7623.75 and 7576.5 back in play, while acceptance above opens the 7740–7750 MA band.

▼ Short Highest Probability

7700 + 100DMA Rejection Short

Trigger: Push into 7693.75–7706 (Monday high, 100DMA) that stalls with sellers absorbing the overnight buying, then a 15m close back below 7690. No shorting the momentum without that close.
Invalid: 15m acceptance above 7712, over the 100DMA.
Targets: 7659 → 7636 → 7623.75

Structural invalidation 7733

▲ Long Second Opportunity

7659 Breakout Retest Long

Trigger: Pullback into 7656–7659 (the broken 1H swing highs) that holds with buyers absorbing, then a 15m close back above 7662.
Invalid: 15m acceptance below 7650; under 7636 the rally has failed.
Targets: 7687.75 → 7694 → 7706

▲ Long Only If

7706 100DMA Reclaim Long

Trigger: Only if ES accepts above the 100DMA: a pullback into 7694–7706 that holds as support with buyers absorbing, then a 15m close back above 7710.
Invalid: 15m acceptance back below 7690.
Targets: 7732.25 → 7740 → 7750

Avoid

Buying 7686–7706 after a 197-point overnight run, straight into Monday's high and the 100DMA.
Trading 7662–7690, the middle between the retest shelf and supply.
Treating the 20/50DMA (7740–7750) as entries. They are targets above the 100DMA.
Normal-width stops. The overnight range was 197 points; size down instead of tightening.

Focus · if → then

7693.75–7706 stalls → short → 7659 → 7636 → 7623.75
7656–7659 holds on the pullback → long → 7687.75 → 7694 → 7706
Accept above 7706 (100DMA) → retest long → 7732.25 → 7740 → 7750; lose 7636 → 7623.75 → 7596

Today's reminder

The election-night rally has reached the 100DMA; fade a stall at 7693.75–7706, or follow acceptance above it.

How it played out

Not scored yet. Every plan is checked against what the market actually did, and nothing is edited after the fact.

Get tomorrow's plan before the open.

Free, every trading day. Plans go out by email and stay here in the archive.

No signals, no spam. Prefer chat? Join the Discord.

Drawn with

Opening Range Breakout Bot$59.99/mo →RAIN High-Probability Reaction Levels$30 →

Earlier plans

11/37580 Broken Demand Retest Short 11/27665 Broken Demand Retest Short 10/307706 + 100DMA Rejection Fade Short 10/297784 + 20DMA Rejection Fade Short