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Friday 30 October 2026 · /ES (December Contract)

10/30 Trade Plan

Bias · Bearish under the 100DMA: sell the bounce into 7699.75–7713, buy only a swept-and-reclaimed 7648.5–7660.75; neutral on acceptance above 7725.25 Gap Down → Test of Demand

Key levels

Thursday low, 1H and 30M swing lows7725.25–7732.25
supply zone (100DMA 7706.7, overnight high 7713, Tuesday low 7712.5)7699.75–7713
overnight low7665.25
demand zone (30-day low, 1H swing lows 7651.75–7660.75)7648.5–7660.75
top of the daily demand zone7620
daily pullback long (September low)7575.25

Context

Thursday stalled at 7767.25 under the 20DMA, broke the 7740 demand to 7725.25 and closed at 7754. Overnight opened 45 points lower at 7709.25, could only reach 7713 and sold on negative delta (−1331) to 7665.25; at 07:30 ES is 7674, back under the 100DMA (7706.7). With ES under the 100DMA again the daily picture has turned back down: the 7648.5 30-day low is the next test, and below it the path is the 7575–7620 daily zone, the 200DMA (7449.3) and 7373.

▼ Short Highest Probability

7706 + 100DMA Rejection Fade Short

Trigger
Bounce into 7699.75–7713 (100DMA, overnight high, Tuesday low) that stalls with sellers absorbing, then a 15m close back below 7698. No shorting at 7674 into the overnight low.
Invalid
15m acceptance above 7716, over the zone.
Targets
7665.25 → 7648.5 → 7620

Structural invalidation 7727

▲ Long Second Opportunity

7650 Demand Zone Hold Long

Trigger
Flush into 7648.5–7660.75 that sweeps the 30-day low by a few ticks, finds responsive buying and reclaims, then a 15m close back above 7661.
Invalid
15m acceptance below 7644, under the zone.
Targets
7665.25 → 7699.75 → 7712.5
Only If

7648 Breakdown

Trigger
Only if ES accepts below 7648.5, a new 30-day low: a bounce into 7648–7652 that fails with sellers in control, then a 15m close back below 7646.
Invalid
15m acceptance back above 7652.
Targets
7620 → 7575.25

Avoid

  • Shorting 7665–7674 into the overnight low after a 45-point gap and a 48-point slide. Sell the bounce into 7699.75–7713.
  • Trading 7666–7696, the middle. Price is at 7674 at 07:30.
  • Buying the first bounce as a gap fill. The 100DMA sits in the way at 7706.7.
  • Normal-width stops. The daily trend has turned down again; size down instead of tightening.

Focus · if → then

  • 7699.75–7713 stalls → short → 7665.25 → 7648.5 → 7620
  • 7648.5–7660.75 swept and reclaimed → long → 7665.25 → 7699.75 → 7712.5
  • Lose 7648.5 → 7620 → 7575.25, the daily path toward the 200DMA and 7373; accept above 7725.25 → gap filled, stand aside

Today's reminder

Back under the 100DMA after a gap down: sell the bounce at 7699.75–7713, and buy only a reclaimed 7648.5–7660.75.

How it played out

Not scored yet. Every plan is checked against what the market actually did, and nothing is edited after the fact.

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Drawn with

RAIN High-Probability Reaction Levels$30 →RAIN Break & Retest Footprint (ES)$50 →

Earlier plans

10/297784 + 20DMA Rejection Fade Short10/287750 Break & Retest Long10/277700 + 100DMA Pullback Hold Long10/267697 + 100DMA Rejection Fade Short