Wednesday 28 October 2026 · /ES (December Contract)

10/28 Trade Plan

Bias · Bullish above 7742.5: buy the retest of 7742.5–7752.25, fade only a clear stall at 7772–7782.85; bearish below 7712.5 Trend Up → Test of the 20DMA

Key levels

old supply (7791.5, 7793, the 10/21 high 7812.25)7785.5–7812.25

supply zone (Tuesday high, overnight high, 20DMA 7782.85)7772–7782.85

50DMA (mid-range magnet)7761.6

demand zone (Tuesday's breakout level, overnight low, 30M swing low 7750.5)7742.5–7752.25

1H swing high7731

100DMA, Tuesday low7703.9–7712.5

Context

Tuesday held 7712.5 above the old 7710–7716 level, broke through the 7742.5–7751 supply and ran to 7772.75, closing at 7758.25. Overnight stayed tight, 7752.25–7772.75 on positive delta (+1780), and stalled again at 7772.75, a double top with Tuesday's high; at 07:30 ES is 7767.25, above the 50DMA (7761.6). Lows keep rising (7648.5, 7677, 7699.75, 7712.5, 7752.25) and ES has reclaimed the 100DMA and the 50DMA; the 20DMA (7782.85) is the last daily average overhead, and reclaiming it would turn the daily picture up toward 7793 and 7812.25. A loss of 7712.5 would put the 100DMA (7703.9) back in play.

▲ Long Highest Probability

7750 Break & Retest Long

Trigger: Pullback into 7742.5–7752.25 (Tuesday's breakout level, overnight low, 30M swing low) that holds with buyers absorbing, then a 15m close back above 7753. No buying at 7767 in the middle of the range.
Invalid: 15m acceptance below 7740, back under the breakout.
Targets: 7772.75 → 7782.85 → 7793

Structural invalidation 7729

▼ Short Second Opportunity

7773 Double-Top Fade Short

Trigger: Push into 7772–7782.85 (Tuesday high, overnight high, 20DMA) that stalls with sellers absorbing, then a 15m close back below 7770.
Invalid: 15m acceptance above 7786, over the 20DMA.
Targets: 7761.6 → 7752.25

▲ Long Only If

7783 + 20DMA Reclaim Long

Trigger: Only if ES accepts above the 20DMA (7782.85): a pullback into 7780–7784 that holds with buyers absorbing, then a 15m close back above 7786.
Invalid: 15m acceptance back below 7776.
Targets: 7793 → 7812.25

Avoid

Trading 7754–7770, the middle. Price is at 7767.25, next to the 50DMA, which is a magnet here.
Shorting just because 7772.75 is a double top. Lows are still rising; wait for a stall and a close back below 7770.
Buying a first poke above 7772.75 before the 20DMA (7782.85) is dealt with.
Stops right on 7752 or 7773. Recent edges were swept by a few ticks before they turned.

Focus · if → then

7742.5–7752.25 retest holds → long → 7772.75 → 7782.85 → 7793
7772–7782.85 stalls → short → 7761.6 → 7752.25; accept above 7782.85 → 20DMA reclaim long → 7793 → 7812.25
Lose 7740 → 7731 → 7712.5; lose 7712.5 → the 100DMA (7703.9) is back in play

Today's reminder

Rising lows and a reclaimed 50DMA mean the retest long comes first; buy 7742.5–7752.25 and fade only a clear stall under the 20DMA.

How it played out

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Drawn with

RAIN High-Probability Reaction Levels$30 →RAIN Break & Retest Footprint (ES)$50 →

Earlier plans

10/277700 + 100DMA Pullback Hold Long 10/267697 + 100DMA Rejection Fade Short 10/237676 Breakdown Retest Short 10/227704 Sweep & Reclaim Long