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Friday 23 October 2026 · /ES (December Contract)

10/23 Trade Plan

Bias · Bearish below 7676.75: sell the retest of the broken 30-day low, buy only at the 7575–7620 daily demand zone; neutral back above the 7696 100DMA Breakdown → Expansion

Key levels

daily lower highs (rejection fades)7812.5–7879.5
pop-and-fade level (Tuesday low, overnight high 7714.25)7710.25–7717
1H swing low, 100DMA7686–7696.2
broken support (30-day low, Thursday low)7672.75–7676.75
daily chart level7647.5
top of the daily demand zone7620
daily pullback long (bottom of the zone, September low)7575.25

Context

Thursday broke the 100DMA to 7676.75, bounced to 7742.5 and closed at 7706.25; overnight sold on negative delta (−4316), and after 08:00 ES broke Thursday's low and the 7672.75 30-day low to 7660.75 (it was 7684.5 at 07:30). With ES now under the 100DMA (7696.2), the daily picture has turned: lower highs at 7879.5 and 7812.5 and a break of the month-long range. The next demand is the 7575–7620 daily zone, the September low area; below that the 200DMA sits at 7433.5, and further downside toward 7373 into next week is possible. The broken support at 7672.75–7676.75 is now the level sellers should defend.

▼ Short Highest Probability

7676 Breakdown Retest Short

Trigger
Bounce into 7672.75–7676.75 (the broken 30-day low and Thursday's low) that stalls with sellers absorbing, then a 15m close back below 7671. No shorting at 7660–7668 at the lows.
Invalid
15m acceptance above 7680, back over the broken low.
Targets
7647.5 → 7620 → 7575.25

Structural invalidation 7698

▲ Long Second Opportunity

7620 Daily Demand Hold Long

Trigger
Flush into 7620, the top of the daily demand zone, that finds responsive buying and reclaims, then a 15m close back above 7622.
Invalid
15m acceptance below 7612.
Targets
7647.5 → 7672.75
▲ Long Only If

7575 Pullback Long

Trigger
Only if 7620 fails: a flush into 7575.25, the bottom of the daily zone and the September low, that sweeps it by a few ticks and reclaims, then a 15m close back above 7578.
Invalid
15m acceptance below 7568.
Targets
7620 → 7647.5

Avoid

  • Selling 7660–7668 at the lows after a 54-point drop. Sell the retest of 7672.75–7676.75.
  • Buying the first bounce as if the 30-day low held. It broke; it is resistance until reclaimed.
  • Opening trades in 7625–7670, between broken support and the daily zone.
  • Normal-width stops. A daily range break can run; size down instead of tightening.

Focus · if → then

  • 7672.75–7676.75 retest stalls → short → 7647.5 → 7620 → 7575.25; pop runs past it → fade 7710.25–7717 instead
  • 7620 holds and reclaims → long → 7647.5 → 7672.75; 7620 fails → 7575.25 pullback long
  • Lose 7575.25 → daily path toward the 200DMA (7433.5) and 7373 next week; accept back above 7696 (100DMA) → breakdown failed

Today's reminder

The 30-day low broke: sell its retest, and buy only at the daily demand zone, 7575–7620.

How it played out

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Drawn with

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Earlier plans

10/227704 Sweep & Reclaim Long10/217793 Rejection Fade Short10/207737 Broken Support Retest Short10/167778 + 50DMA Pullback Hold Long