Wednesday 21 October 2026 · /ES (December Contract)

10/21 Trade Plan

Bias · Neutral: fade 7785–7793, buy the retest of 7743.5–7748.25; bearish below 7743.5, bullish only on acceptance above 7809.5 Range → Expansion

Key levels

Friday highs, 1H swing highs7801.75–7809.5

supply zone (rejection fade, 20DMA 7789.5, Tuesday high 7791.5, overnight high 7793)7785–7793

overnight low 7757, Tuesday close 77597752.75–7759

Tuesday's initial-balance high, break-and-retest pivot7743.5–7748.25

Monday low, 30M swing lows7727.5–7737.25

hourly edge: pullback long (Tuesday low, 30M swing low 7704.5)7703.75–7710.25

Context

Tuesday swept under the 7717.25 swing low to 7710.25, broke out through its 7748.25 initial-balance high and ran 81 points to 7791.5, where the 7785–7793 zone rejected it; it closed at 7759. Overnight made a marginal new high at 7793 and sold on negative delta (−2056) to 7757. At 07:30 ES is 7776, on the 50DMA (7772) in the middle of the range. The edges are 7793 above and Tuesday's 7743.5–7748.25 breakout level below, with 7703.75 as the deeper hourly pullback long.

▼ Short Highest Probability

7793 Rejection Fade Short

Trigger: Push back into 7785–7793 (20DMA, Tuesday high, overnight high) that stalls with sellers absorbing, then a 15m close back below 7784. No shorting at 7776 on the 50DMA.
Invalid: 15m acceptance above 7796, over the double top.
Targets: 7772 → 7759 → 7748.25

Structural invalidation 7803

▲ Long Second Opportunity

7747 Break & Retest Long

Trigger: Pullback into 7743.5–7748.25 (Tuesday's initial-balance high, where the rally broke out) that holds with buyers absorbing, then a 15m close back above 7748.25.
Invalid: 15m acceptance below 7743.5.
Targets: 7757 → 7772 → 7785

▼ Short Only If

7743 Retest Short

Trigger: Only if ES accepts below 7743.5, failing the breakout: a bounce into 7743.5–7748 that fails with sellers in control, then a 15m close back below 7742.
Invalid: 15m acceptance back above 7748.25.
Targets: 7727.5 → 7710.25 → 7703.75

Avoid

Trading 7750–7784, the middle. Price is at 7776 on the 50DMA, which is a magnet here, not a trade level.
Buying 7757 just because it is the overnight low. The pivot is 7743.5–7748.25.
Chasing the overnight high or a break of 7793 before Friday's 7801.75–7809.5 highs are dealt with.
Stops right on 7793 or 7743.5. Recent edges were swept by a few ticks before they turned.

Focus · if → then

7785–7793 stalls → short → 7772 → 7759 → 7748.25
7743.5–7748.25 retest holds → long → 7757 → 7772 → 7785
Lose 7743.5 → retest short → 7727.5 → 7710.25 → 7703.75 pullback long; accept above 7809.5 → stand aside

Today's reminder

7793 has rejected twice and 7748.25 is Tuesday's breakout level; trade those edges and leave the 50DMA in the middle alone.

How it played out

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Earlier plans

10/207737 Broken Support Retest Short 10/167778 + 50DMA Pullback Hold Long 10/157771 + 50DMA Fade Short 10/147834 Breakdown Retest Short