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Friday 16 October 2026 · /ES (December Contract)

10/16 Trade Plan

Bias · Bullish above 7771.75/50DMA: buy the 7771.75–7778 pullback, fade 7834.5–7849; bearish only on acceptance below 7770 Reversal → Range

Key levels

supply zone (Wednesday's 7837.75 high, post-CPI retest zone)7834.5–7849
overnight high7809.5
20DMA, Thursday high7800.7–7801.75
demand zone (overnight low 7774.75, 50DMA, Wednesday close)7771.75–7778
30M higher low7741.75
Thursday low, swept double bottom7717.25–7729.5

Context

Thursday swept the 7729.5 overnight low to 7717.25, then reversed 84 points through the 50DMA to 7801.75, right at the 20DMA, and closed at 7790.75. Overnight held 7774.75, above the 50DMA, and pushed on positive delta (+2591) to 7809.5, over Thursday's high and the 20DMA. At 07:30 ES is 7798.5, back on the 20DMA (7800.7) in the middle of a 7771.75–7834.5 range, with higher lows underneath (7717.25, 7741.75, 7774.75).

▲ Long Highest Probability

7778 + 50DMA Pullback Hold Long

Trigger
Pullback into 7771.75–7778 (overnight low, 50DMA, Wednesday close) that sweeps 7774.75 by a few ticks, finds responsive buying and reclaims, then a 15m close back above 7778. No buying at 7798 on the 20DMA in the middle of the range.
Invalid
15m acceptance below 7770, under the zone.
Targets
7801.75 → 7809.5 → 7837.75

Structural invalidation 7739

▼ Short Second Opportunity

7837 Supply Zone Fade Short

Trigger
Push into 7834.5–7849 (Wednesday's high, the post-CPI retest zone) that stalls with sellers absorbing, then a 15m close back below 7832.
Invalid
15m acceptance above 7852, over the zone.
Targets
7809.5 → 7801.75 → 7778
Only If

7774 Breakdown

Trigger
Only if ES accepts below 7770, losing the overnight low, the 50DMA and Wednesday's close: a bounce into 7770–7778 that fails with sellers in control, then a 15m close back below 7768.
Invalid
15m acceptance back above 7778.
Targets
7755.75 → 7741.75 → 7729.5

Avoid

  • Trading 7785–7830, the middle. Price is at 7798.5 on the 20DMA, which is a magnet here, not a trade level.
  • Chasing the overnight push over Thursday's high. 7809.5 is mid-range; the next real supply is 7834.5–7849.
  • Shorting 7801–7809 as resistance. It is the middle of the range, not its edge.
  • Normal-width stops. Swings since CPI are bigger than last week's 2–3 tick sweeps; size down instead of tightening.

Focus · if → then

  • 7774.75 swept and 7771.75–7778 holds → long → 7801.75 → 7809.5 → 7837.75
  • 7834.5–7849 stalls → short → 7809.5 → 7801.75 → 7778
  • Lose 7770 → breakdown → 7755.75 → 7741.75 → 7729.5

Today's reminder

Higher lows mean the pullback comes first; the trades are at 7771.75–7778 and 7834.5–7849, not at the 20DMA.

How it played out

Not scored yet. Every plan is checked against what the market actually did, and nothing is edited after the fact.

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Drawn with

RAIN High-Probability Reaction Levels$30 →RAIN Break & Retest Footprint (ES)$50 →

Earlier plans

10/157771 + 50DMA Fade Short10/147834 Breakdown Retest Short10/137870 Supply Zone Fade Short10/127887 Supply Zone Fade Short