Monday 12 October 2026 · /ES (December Contract)

10/12 Trade Plan

Bias · Neutral: fade 7884.5–7897.5, buy 7827–7840; bullish only on acceptance above the 7897.5 30-day high Range → Expansion

Key levels

30-day high7897.5

supply zone (1H lower high, overnight high)7884.5–7887

overnight low, Friday close7860–7861

demand zone (Friday low, 30M swing lows 7832.25 and 7839.5)7826.75–7839.5

30M swing low7803

1H swing low (50DMA 7780, 20DMA 7776)7783

Context

Friday traded 7826.75–7870.5 and closed at 7861, finally getting through the 7850–7860 lower-high zone. Overnight opened at 7873 and rallied on positive delta (+1683) to 7887, just over the 7884.5 lower high but short of the 7897.5 30-day high, then gave it all back to 7860. At 07:30 ES is 7864, sitting on the overnight low and Friday's close, in the middle of a 7827–7897.5 range. The 50DMA (7780) and 20DMA (7776) are far below, under 7803 and 7783.

▼ Short Highest Probability

7887 Supply Zone Fade Short

Trigger: Push back into 7884.5–7897.5 (1H lower high, overnight high 7887, 30-day high) that stalls with sellers absorbing, then a 15m close back below 7882. No shorting at 7864 in the middle of the range.
Invalid: 15m acceptance above 7900, over the 30-day high.
Targets: 7861 → 7840 → 7827

Structural invalidation 7902

▲ Long Second Opportunity

7827 Demand Zone Hold Long

Trigger: Flush into 7826.75–7839.5 that sweeps Friday's low by a few ticks, finds responsive buying and reclaims, then a 15m close back above 7833.
Invalid: 15m acceptance below 7820, under the 7820.5 swing low.
Targets: 7861 → 7887

Only If

7827 Breakdown

Trigger: Only if ES accepts below 7820 (Friday low and the 7820.5 swing low both gone): a bounce into 7822–7827 that fails with sellers in control, then a 15m close back below 7820.
Invalid: 15m acceptance back above 7833, inside the demand zone.
Targets: 7803 → 7783

Avoid

Trading 7845–7880, the middle between demand and supply. Price is at 7864 at 07:30.
Buying 7860 because it is the overnight low and overnight delta was positive. Overnight already failed at 7887; 7860 is a pivot, not an entry.
Chasing a break above 7897.5. There is no measured level above the 30-day high to target, so there is no plan up there until it builds one.
Stops right on 7897.5 or 7827. Recent edges were swept by 2–3 ticks before they turned.

Focus · if → then

7884.5–7897.5 stalls → short → 7861 → 7840 → 7827
7827 swept and reclaimed → long → 7861 → 7887
Lose 7820 → breakdown → 7803 → 7783; accept above 7897.5 → stand aside, no level above

Today's reminder

Price opens in the middle; the trades are at 7887–7897.5 and 7827, not at 7864.

How it played out

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Drawn with

RAIN High-Probability Reaction Levels$30 →RAIN Break & Retest Footprint (ES)$50 →

Earlier plans

10/97860 Lower-High Fade Short 10/87816 Break & Retest Short 10/77829 Breakout Base Hold Long 10/67847.5 Break & Retest Long