Thursday 15 October 2026 · /ES (December Contract)

10/15 Trade Plan

Bias · Bearish below 7778/50DMA: fade 7769.5–7778, buy only a swept-and-reclaimed 7729.5; neutral on acceptance above 7798 Trend Down → Range

Key levels

20DMA, 1H swing low 7802.757795–7802.75

1H swing low, now resistance7783

supply zone (overnight high, Wednesday close 7771.75, 50DMA)7769.5–7778

demand zone (overnight low, Wednesday low, 7737 swing low)7729.5–7741

100DMA7693

Context

The CPI selloff never recovered: Wednesday's regular session ran from 7837.75 down to 7741 and closed at 7771.75, under the 50DMA. Overnight opened at 7768.25, failed at 7769.5 and sold on negative delta (−2788) to 7729.5, under Wednesday's low and the 7737 swing low. Before 07:00 ES is 7744.25, below both the 50DMA (7778) and 20DMA (7795), which are now overhead resistance; the 100DMA (7693) is the next measured level below.

▼ Short Highest Probability

7771 + 50DMA Fade Short

Trigger: Bounce into 7769.5–7778 (overnight high, Wednesday close, 50DMA) that stalls with sellers absorbing, then a 15m close back below 7766. No shorting at 7744 on top of the demand zone.
Invalid: 15m acceptance above 7783, back over the 50DMA and the swing low.
Targets: 7741 → 7729.5 → 7693

Structural invalidation 7798

▲ Long Second Opportunity

7729 Demand Zone Hold Long

Trigger: Flush into 7729.5–7741 that sweeps the 7729.5 overnight low by a few ticks, finds responsive buying and reclaims, then a 15m close back above 7741.
Invalid: 15m acceptance below 7725, under the zone.
Targets: 7769.5 → 7778

Only If

7729 Breakdown

Trigger: Only if ES accepts below 7729.5: a bounce into 7730–7737 that fails with sellers in control, then a 15m close back below 7727.
Invalid: 15m acceptance back above 7741.
Targets: 7693

Avoid

Buying 7744 because it sits on support. Overnight sold on −2788 delta; wait for the 7729.5 sweep and reclaim.
Trading 7745–7765, the middle between demand and supply.
Treating the 50DMA and 20DMA as support. ES is under both; they are resistance and targets for any squeeze.
Normal-width stops. Swings since CPI are bigger than last week's 2–3 tick sweeps; size down instead of tightening.

Focus · if → then

7769.5–7778 stalls → short → 7741 → 7729.5 → 7693
7729.5 swept and reclaimed → long → 7769.5 → 7778
Lose 7729.5 → breakdown → 7693; accept above 7798 → downtrend paused, stand aside

Today's reminder

ES is under both moving averages; sell the bounce into 7769.5–7778 and only buy 7729.5 after it is swept and reclaimed.

How it played out

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Drawn with

RAIN High-Probability Reaction Levels$30 →RAIN Break & Retest Footprint (ES)$50 →

Earlier plans

10/147834 Breakdown Retest Short 10/137870 Supply Zone Fade Short 10/127887 Supply Zone Fade Short 10/97860 Lower-High Fade Short