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Wednesday 14 October 2026 · /ES (December Contract)

10/14 Trade Plan

Bias · Bearish below 7849 after CPI: sell the retest of 7834.5–7849, buy only at 7781–7803; neutral again on acceptance above 7849 News Shock → Expansion

Key levels

pre-CPI base and today's high7864–7879.75
broken demand, now supply (prior day low, 07:30 demand zone)7834.5–7849
post-CPI low, 1H swing low7822–7826.75
1H swing low7815.75
20DMA, 30M/1H swing low 7802.757798–7803
50DMA, 1H swing low7781–7783

Context

Before CPI, ES held 7864 and pushed to a new high of 7879.75 on positive delta; it never pulled back to 7849, so the 07:30 long did not trigger. The 08:30 CPI release took ES from 7879.75 to 7824 inside one 15-minute bar on heavy selling (66,215 contracts, delta −5263), straight through the 7845–7849 demand and Tuesday's 7834.5 low, and closed near the low at 7828.25. The 08:45 bar bounced to 7838.25, into the broken zone, failed and closed at 7824.75: the retest short has already triggered. The 20DMA (7798) and 50DMA (7781) are now 30–45 points below and are the next real demand.

▼ Short Highest Probability

7834 Breakdown Retest Short

Trigger
Bounce into 7834.5–7849 (Tuesday's low, the broken 07:30 demand) that stalls with sellers absorbing, then a 15m close back below 7834. No shorting at 7826 into the CPI low.
Invalid
15m acceptance above 7849, back over the broken zone.
Targets
7815.75 → 7803 → 7798

Structural invalidation 7858

▲ Long Second Opportunity

7798 + 20DMA/50DMA Demand Hold Long

Trigger
Flush into 7781–7803 (20DMA 7798, 50DMA 7781, swing lows 7802.75 and 7783) that finds responsive buying and reclaims, then a 15m close back above 7803.
Invalid
15m acceptance below 7778, under the 50DMA.
Targets
7815.75 → 7826.75 → 7834.5
▲ Long Only If

7849 CPI Reclaim Long

Trigger
Only if the CPI drop is fully rejected: acceptance back above 7849, a pullback into 7846–7850 that holds with buyers absorbing, then a 15m close back above 7852.
Invalid
15m acceptance back below 7843.
Targets
7864 → 7879.75

Avoid

  • Chasing the short at 7822–7826 if the first retest was missed. Wait for another stall at 7834.5–7849.
  • Shorting at 7826 into the CPI low, or buying the first touch of 7826.75 against a −5263 delta bar. The trades are at 7834.5–7849 and 7781–7803.
  • Using the 07:30 long at 7849. CPI broke the zone before it triggered; 7849 is now resistance.
  • Normal-width stops. Post-CPI swings are larger than this week's 2–3 tick sweeps; size down instead of tightening.

Focus · if → then

  • 7834.5–7849 stalls → short → 7815.75 → 7803 → 7798
  • 7781–7803 holds and reclaims → long → 7815.75 → 7826.75 → 7834.5
  • Accept above 7849 → CPI drop rejected → retest long → 7864 → 7879.75; lose 7778 → stand aside

Today's reminder

CPI moved the market, so the levels moved with it; sell the retest at 7834.5–7849, buy only at the moving averages.

How it played out

Not scored yet. Every plan is checked against what the market actually did, and nothing is edited after the fact.

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Drawn with

RAIN High-Probability Reaction Levels$30 →RAIN Break & Retest Footprint (ES)$50 →

Earlier plans

10/137870 Supply Zone Fade Short10/127887 Supply Zone Fade Short10/97860 Lower-High Fade Short10/87816 Break & Retest Short