Tuesday 20 October 2026 · /ES (December Contract)

10/20 Trade Plan

Bias · Bearish below 7737: sell the retest of 7727.5–7737.25, buy only at 7692.5–7703; neutral on acceptance above 7737.25 Trend Down → Range

Key levels

hourly edge: rejection fade (20DMA 7786, under Friday's 7801.75–7808 highs)7785

supply (Monday high, double 1H high, 50DMA 7772)7768.5–7773.25

overnight high, 30M swing highs7752.25–7754.25

broken support (Monday low, 30M swing lows)7727.5–7737.25

overnight low, 10/15 reversal low7717.25–7718.25

100DMA, Friday close7692.5–7703

hourly edge: pullback long (Friday low, 30-day low 7672.75)7676

Context

Friday's selloff ran from 7808.25 to 7676 and closed at 7703; Monday bounced to 7773.25, failed at the 50DMA (7772) and closed at 7735. Overnight stalled at 7752.75, another lower high, and sold on heavy negative delta (−6808) through Monday's 7727.5 low to 7718.25; at 07:30 ES is 7721.5, on the 7717.25 swing low. On the hourly chart the bigger range is 7676–7785: 7785 is a rejection fade at the 20DMA under Friday's 7801.75–7808 highs, and 7676 is a pullback long at Friday's low and the 30-day low. Today's setups trade the intraday edges inside that range.

▼ Short Highest Probability

7737 Broken Support Retest Short

Trigger: Bounce into 7727.5–7737.25 (Monday's low, the 30M swing lows) that stalls with sellers absorbing, then a 15m close back below 7726. No shorting at 7721 on top of 7717.
Invalid: 15m acceptance above 7740, back inside Monday's range.
Targets: 7717.25 → 7703 → 7692.5

Structural invalidation 7755

▲ Long Second Opportunity

7692 + 100DMA Demand Hold Long

Trigger: Flush into 7692.5–7703 (100DMA, Friday close) that finds responsive buying and reclaims, then a 15m close back above 7703.
Invalid: 15m acceptance below 7688, under the 100DMA.
Targets: 7717.25 → 7727.5 → 7737.25

▲ Long Only If

7737 Reclaim Long

Trigger: Only if ES accepts back above 7737.25, rejecting the overnight breakdown: a pullback into 7735–7738 that holds with buyers absorbing, then a 15m close back above 7740.
Invalid: 15m acceptance back below 7727.5.
Targets: 7752.75 → 7768.5

Avoid

Trading 7704–7726, the middle. Price is at 7721.5 at 07:30.
Buying 7717–7721 without a sweep and reclaim. Overnight sold into it on −6808 delta.
Treating the 50DMA (7772) and 20DMA (7786) as support. ES is under both; they are overhead.
Normal-width stops. Friday's range was 132 points; size down instead of tightening.

Focus · if → then

7727.5–7737.25 stalls → short → 7717.25 → 7703 → 7692.5
7692.5–7703 flush holds → long → 7717.25 → 7727.5 → 7737.25; deeper flush → 7676 hourly pullback long
Accept above 7737.25 → reclaim long → 7752.75 → 7768.5 → 7785 hourly fade; lose 7672.75 → stand aside

Today's reminder

Lower highs and heavy overnight selling mean the retest short comes first; the trades are at 7727.5–7737.25 and 7692.5–7703, not at 7721.

How it played out

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Earlier plans

10/167778 + 50DMA Pullback Hold Long 10/157771 + 50DMA Fade Short 10/147834 Breakdown Retest Short 10/137870 Supply Zone Fade Short