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Thursday 22 October 2026 · /ES (December Contract)

10/22 Trade Plan

Bias · Neutral at demand: buy a swept-and-reclaimed 7703.75–7710.25, sell the retest of 7746.25–7751; bearish below the 7694 100DMA Trend Down → Test of Demand

Key levels

50DMA and 20DMA7769–7788.5
pivot (Tuesday's 7748.25 initial-balance high, value area high ~7750, Wednesday low 7751)7746.25–7751
1H swing lows from Monday and Tuesday7724–7730.75
demand zone (Tuesday low, overnight low, 30M swing low 7704.5)7703.75–7710.25
100DMA7694.4
30-day low, Friday low7672.75–7676

Context

Wednesday broke through the 7785–7793 zone and Friday's highs to 7812.25 and closed strong at 7799. Overnight reversed hard: from 7798.75 it sold 88 points on heavy negative delta (−7736), straight through the 50DMA (7769) and Wednesday's 7751 low, to 7710.25, Tuesday's low. At 07:30 ES is 7714.25, sitting on the 7703.75–7710.25 demand that launched Tuesday's 81-point rally, with the 100DMA (7694.4) just below and the 7672.75 30-day low under that. Above, the first ceiling is 7746.25–7751: Tuesday's 7748.25 initial-balance high, the value area high near 7750 and Wednesday's 7751 low, the level a rejection should come from.

▲ Long Highest Probability

7704 Sweep & Reclaim Long

Trigger
Flush into 7703.75–7710.25 that sweeps the lows by a few ticks, finds responsive buying and reclaims, then a 15m close back above 7710.25. No buying at 7714 before the sweep.
Invalid
15m acceptance below 7700, under the zone.
Targets
7724 → 7730.75 → 7748.25

Structural invalidation 7689

▼ Short Second Opportunity

7750 VAH + IBH Rejection Short

Trigger
Bounce into 7746.25–7751 (Tuesday's 7748.25 initial-balance high, the value area high near 7750, Wednesday's 7751 low) that stalls with sellers absorbing, then a 15m close back below 7745.
Invalid
15m acceptance above 7754, back over the pivot.
Targets
7730.75 → 7724 → 7710.25
Only If

7694 Breakdown

Trigger
Only if ES accepts below the 7694 100DMA, losing the demand zone: a bounce into 7694–7700 that fails with sellers in control, then a 15m close back below 7692.
Invalid
15m acceptance back above 7703.75.
Targets
7676

Avoid

  • Buying 7714 before a sweep and reclaim. Overnight sold 88 points into it on −7736 delta.
  • Shorting 7710–7714 into demand after an 88-point drop. Sell the retest at 7746.25–7751 instead.
  • Trading 7715–7745, the middle, once price leaves the lows.
  • Normal-width stops. The overnight range was 88 points; size down instead of tightening.

Focus · if → then

  • 7703.75–7710.25 swept and reclaimed → long → 7724 → 7730.75 → 7748.25
  • 7746.25–7751 stalls → short → 7730.75 → 7724 → 7710.25
  • Lose 7694 (100DMA) → breakdown → 7676; lose 7672.75 → stand aside, no level below

Today's reminder

After an 88-point overnight drop the edge is right under price: wait for 7703.75–7710.25 to sweep and reclaim before buying, and sell only the retest of 7746.25–7751.

How it played out

Not scored yet. Every plan is checked against what the market actually did, and nothing is edited after the fact.

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Drawn with

RAIN High-Probability Reaction Levels$30 →RAIN Break & Retest Footprint (ES)$50 →

Earlier plans

10/217793 Rejection Fade Short10/207737 Broken Support Retest Short10/167778 + 50DMA Pullback Hold Long10/157771 + 50DMA Fade Short