Monday 26 October 2026 · /ES (December Contract)

10/26 Trade Plan

Bias · Bearish under the 100DMA: fade 7690–7698, buy only a swept-and-reclaimed 7648.5–7651.75; neutral on acceptance above 7716.25 Range → Expansion

Key levels

pop-and-fade level (1H highs 7716.25 and 7712.25, Tuesday low)7710.25–7716.25

supply zone (100DMA 7697.4, Friday high 7697.25, overnight high 7698)7690–7698

30M swing low (mid-range)7661.5

demand zone (Friday low, 30-day low, overnight low)7648.5–7651.75

top of the daily demand zone7620

daily pullback long (September low)7575.25

Context

Friday broke the 30-day low to 7648.5, rallied only to 7697.25, right at the 100DMA, and closed at 7660.75. Overnight opened higher at 7690, was capped again at 7698 and sold to 7651.75 despite positive delta (+1366); at 07:30 ES is 7672.25, in the middle of a 7648.5–7698 range. The 100DMA (7697.4) has now rejected price twice and ES is still under it, so the daily picture stays bearish: below the range the path is the 7575–7620 daily zone, then the 200DMA (7436.3) and 7373. Above the 100DMA, 7710.25–7716.25 is the pop-and-fade level.

▼ Short Highest Probability

7697 + 100DMA Rejection Fade Short

Trigger: Push into 7690–7698 (100DMA, Friday high, overnight high) that stalls with sellers absorbing, then a 15m close back below 7689. No shorting at 7672 in the middle of the range.
Invalid: 15m acceptance above 7701, over the 100DMA.
Targets: 7661.5 → 7651.75 → 7648.5

Structural invalidation 7718

▲ Long Second Opportunity

7650 Demand Zone Hold Long

Trigger: Flush into 7648.5–7651.75 that sweeps Friday's low by a few ticks, finds responsive buying and reclaims, then a 15m close back above 7652.
Invalid: 15m acceptance below 7644, under the zone.
Targets: 7661.5 → 7676.75 → 7690

Only If

7648 Breakdown

Trigger: Only if ES accepts below 7648.5, a new 30-day low: a bounce into 7648–7652 that fails with sellers in control, then a 15m close back below 7646.
Invalid: 15m acceptance back above 7652.
Targets: 7620 → 7575.25

Avoid

Trading 7655–7688, the middle. Price is at 7672.25 at 07:30.
Buying a pop through 7698 before 7710.25–7716.25 is dealt with. The 100DMA has capped price twice.
Shorting the lows at 7648–7652. The second test can hold; sell the 100DMA instead.
Normal-width stops. The daily trend is down and ranges are wide; size down instead of tightening.

Focus · if → then

7690–7698 stalls → short → 7661.5 → 7651.75 → 7648.5
7648.5–7651.75 swept and reclaimed → long → 7661.5 → 7676.75 → 7690
Lose 7648.5 → 7620 → 7575.25, the daily path toward the 200DMA and 7373; accept above 7716.25 → stand aside

Today's reminder

The 100DMA capped price twice and the 30-day low held once; trade 7690–7698 and 7648.5–7651.75, not 7672.

How it played out

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Earlier plans

10/237676 Breakdown Retest Short 10/227704 Sweep & Reclaim Long 10/217793 Rejection Fade Short 10/207737 Broken Support Retest Short