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Tuesday 27 October 2026 · /ES (December Contract)

10/27 Trade Plan

Bias · Bullish above the 7700 100DMA: buy the pullback to 7699.75–7704.75, fade only a clear stall at 7742.5–7751; bearish below 7677 Reclaim → Trend Up

Key levels

50DMA and 20DMA7761.7–7779.4
supply zone (Thursday high, overnight high 7743.25, old VAH/IBH 7748–7750, Wednesday low 7751)7742.5–7751
old pop-and-fade level, now support7710.25–7716.25
demand zone (100DMA 7700, overnight low, 30M swing lows)7699.75–7704.75
Monday low, the last higher low7677
30-day low7648.5

Context

Monday reclaimed the 100DMA, broke through the 7710–7716 pop-and-fade level to 7739.5 and closed at 7714.5. Overnight retested the 100DMA at 7699.75, held it, and pushed on positive delta (+2440) to 7743.25, just over Thursday's 7742.5 high; at 07:30 ES is 7734.25. Lows are rising (7648.5, 7677, 7699.75), but the daily trend is still down: ES sits under the 50DMA (7761.7) and 20DMA (7779.4), which are the upside targets, while a loss of 7677 would reopen the daily path to 7575–7620, the 200DMA (7440.1) and 7373.

▲ Long Highest Probability

7700 + 100DMA Pullback Hold Long

Trigger
Pullback into 7699.75–7704.75 (100DMA, overnight low, 30M swing lows) that holds with buyers absorbing, a sweep of the overnight low by a few ticks allowed, then a 15m close back above 7705. No buying at 7734 near the highs.
Invalid
15m acceptance below 7696, under the 100DMA.
Targets
7716.25 → 7743.25 → 7761.7

Structural invalidation 7675

▼ Short Second Opportunity

7743 Supply Zone Fade Short

Trigger
Push into 7742.5–7751 (Thursday high, overnight high, old VAH/IBH, Wednesday low) that stalls with sellers absorbing, then a 15m close back below 7740.
Invalid
15m acceptance above 7754, over the zone.
Targets
7716.25 → 7704.75
▲ Long Only If

7751 Break & Retest Long

Trigger
Only if ES accepts above 7751: a pullback into 7748–7752 that holds with buyers absorbing, then a 15m close back above 7753.
Invalid
15m acceptance back below 7745.
Targets
7761.7 → 7773.25 → 7779.4

Avoid

  • Buying 7734 near the highs. Let it pull back to the 100DMA first.
  • Shorting 7743 just because it is the overnight high while lows keep rising. Wait for a stall and a close back below 7740.
  • Trading 7717–7740, the middle. Price is at 7734.25 at 07:30.
  • Stops right on 7700 or 7743. Recent edges were swept by a few ticks before they turned.

Focus · if → then

  • 7699.75–7704.75 holds → long → 7716.25 → 7743.25 → 7761.7
  • 7742.5–7751 stalls → short → 7716.25 → 7704.75; accept above 7751 → break & retest long → 7761.7 → 7779.4
  • Lose 7696 (100DMA) → 7677; lose 7677 → the daily path reopens to 7648.5 → 7620

Today's reminder

Rising lows and a held 100DMA mean the pullback comes first; buy 7700–7705 and fade only a clear stall at 7742.5–7751.

How it played out

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Drawn with

RAIN High-Probability Reaction Levels$30 →RAIN Break & Retest Footprint (ES)$50 →

Earlier plans

10/267697 + 100DMA Rejection Fade Short10/237676 Breakdown Retest Short10/227704 Sweep & Reclaim Long10/217793 Rejection Fade Short