Thursday 29 October 2026 · /ES (December Contract)

10/29 Trade Plan

Bias · Neutral between the 50DMA and 20DMA: fade 7773.75–7784.5, buy only a swept-and-reclaimed 7740–7742.5; bearish below 7731 Range → Expansion

Key levels

Wednesday high, old supply7791.5–7794.25

supply zone (overnight high, 1H swing high 7778.25, 20DMA 7784.5)7773.75–7784.5

50DMA (mid-range magnet)7762

demand zone (overnight low, Tuesday's breakout level)7740–7742.5

1H swing high7731

100DMA, Tuesday low7706.2–7712.5

Context

Wednesday held 7751.5, ran through the 20DMA to 7794.25, just over the old 7793 supply, and closed at 7784.5, right on the 20DMA. Overnight opened lower at 7767.75, made a lower high at 7773.75 and a lower low at 7740, under Wednesday's low, despite positive delta (+2543); at 07:30 ES is 7764, on the 50DMA (7762). On the daily chart ES is pinned between the 50DMA and the 20DMA (7784.5): a close above 7794.25 turns the daily picture up toward 7812.25, while a loss of 7731 points back to the 100DMA (7706.2).

▼ Short Highest Probability

7784 + 20DMA Rejection Fade Short

Trigger: Push into 7773.75–7784.5 (overnight high, 1H swing high, 20DMA) that stalls with sellers absorbing, then a 15m close back below 7772. No shorting at 7764 on the 50DMA.
Invalid: 15m acceptance above 7787, over the 20DMA.
Targets: 7762 → 7751.5 → 7742.5

Structural invalidation 7797

▲ Long Second Opportunity

7740 Demand Zone Hold Long

Trigger: Flush into 7740–7742.5 that sweeps the overnight low by a few ticks, finds responsive buying and reclaims, then a 15m close back above 7743.
Invalid: 15m acceptance below 7736, under the zone.
Targets: 7751.5 → 7762 → 7773.75

Only If

7731 Breakdown

Trigger: Only if ES accepts below 7731: a bounce into 7731–7736 that fails with sellers in control, then a 15m close back below 7729.
Invalid: 15m acceptance back above 7740.
Targets: 7712.5 → 7706.2

Avoid

Trading 7745–7772, the middle. Price is at 7764 on the 50DMA, which is a magnet here.
Reading the overnight's positive delta as strength. It made a lower high and a lower low.
Buying a first poke through 7784.5 before Wednesday's 7794.25 high is dealt with.
Stops right on 7784 or 7740. Recent edges were swept by a few ticks before they turned.

Focus · if → then

7773.75–7784.5 stalls → short → 7762 → 7751.5 → 7742.5
7740–7742.5 swept and reclaimed → long → 7751.5 → 7762 → 7773.75
Lose 7731 → breakdown → 7712.5 → 7706.2 (100DMA); accept above 7794.25 → stand aside, the daily turns up toward 7812.25

Today's reminder

A lower high and a lower low overnight, under the 20DMA: fade 7773.75–7784.5, buy only a reclaimed 7740–7742.5, and leave the 50DMA in the middle alone.

How it played out

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Drawn with

RAIN High-Probability Reaction Levels$30 →RAIN Break & Retest Footprint (ES)$50 →

Earlier plans

10/287750 Break & Retest Long 10/277700 + 100DMA Pullback Hold Long 10/267697 + 100DMA Rejection Fade Short 10/237676 Breakdown Retest Short