Monday 2 November 2026 · /ES (December Contract)

11/2 Trade Plan

Bias · Bearish under the 100DMA: sell the bounce into 7659.25–7670, buy only a held 7612.75–7625.25; neutral on acceptance above 7694 Inside Range → Retest of Broken Demand

Key levels

1H and 30M swing highs7693–7694

supply zone (Friday high, overnight high, broken 7665.25 demand)7659.25–7670

demand zone (overnight low, Friday close, top of the daily zone)7612.75–7625.25

September low7575.25

Friday low, 30-day low7558.25

Context

Friday lost the 7648.5 30-day low, flushed through the 7575–7620 daily zone to 7558.25 and closed back at 7612.75. Overnight held 7625.25 and bounced to 7659.25, under Friday's 7670 high and into the broken 7648.5–7665 demand, on negative delta (−1672); at 07:30 ES is 7644, the middle. ES stays under the 100DMA (7705.67), with the 20/50DMA (7764/7756) above it: the daily zone has been tagged, and losing 7612.75 again opens 7558.25, then the 200DMA (7451.4) and 7373 (Tim's chart) into next week.

▼ Short Highest Probability

7665 Broken Demand Retest Short

Trigger: Bounce into 7659.25–7670 (overnight high, Friday high, the old 7648.5–7665 demand) that stalls with sellers absorbing, then a 15m close back below 7656. No shorting at 7644 in the middle.
Invalid: 15m acceptance above 7674, over the zone.
Targets: 7625.25 → 7612.75 → 7575.25

Structural invalidation 7694

▲ Long Second Opportunity

7620 Demand Zone Hold Long

Trigger: Pullback into 7612.75–7625.25 that sweeps the overnight low by a few ticks, finds responsive buying and holds, then a 15m close back above 7626.
Invalid: 15m acceptance below 7608, under the zone.
Targets: 7644 → 7659.25 → 7670

Only If

7612 Breakdown

Trigger: Only if ES accepts below 7612.75, Friday's close: a bounce into 7612–7618 that fails with sellers in control, then a 15m close back below 7610.
Invalid: 15m acceptance back above 7618.
Targets: 7575.25 → 7558.25

Avoid

Trading 7630–7655, the middle. Price is at 7644 at 07:30.
Buying the bounce as a recovery. ES is still 60 points under the 100DMA at 7705.67.
Chasing a break of 7558.25 at the low after a 112-point Friday range. Wait for the retest.
Normal-width stops. The daily trend is down; size down instead of tightening.

Focus · if → then

7659.25–7670 stalls → short → 7625.25 → 7612.75 → 7575.25
7612.75–7625.25 swept and held → long → 7644 → 7659.25 → 7670
Lose 7612.75 → 7575.25 → 7558.25, the daily path toward the 200DMA and 7373; accept above 7694 → stand aside

Today's reminder

Under the 100DMA after Friday's flush: sell the retest of broken demand at 7659.25–7670, and buy only a held 7612.75–7625.25.

How it played out

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Earlier plans

10/307706 + 100DMA Rejection Fade Short 10/297784 + 20DMA Rejection Fade Short 10/287750 Break & Retest Long 10/277700 + 100DMA Pullback Hold Long