Tuesday 3 November 2026 · /ES (December Contract)

11/3 Trade Plan

Bias · Bearish in the down cycle under the 100DMA: sell the retest of 7570.75–7591.5; a swept-and-reclaimed 7546 long is a counter-trend scalp only; neutral on acceptance above 7613 Trending Down → New 30-Day Low

Key levels

Friday close7612.75

supply zone (Monday low and close, overnight high)7570.75–7591.5

Friday low7558.25

overnight low, new 30-day low7546

200DMA7453

liquidity (Tim's chart)7373

Context

Monday squeezed to 7693.75, stalled at the 1H and 30M swing highs, then reversed 123 points to close near the low at 7576.25. Overnight sold hard on negative delta (−3645), broke Friday's 7558.25 low and made a new 30-day low at 7546; at 07:30 ES is 7560, back at Friday's low. The down cycle is intact: ES is under the 100DMA (7704.2), the 20DMA (7745.5) has slipped under the 50DMA (7751.1), and the 7575–7620 daily zone has failed. There is no measured structure between 7546 and the 200DMA at 7453, with the 7373 liquidity (Tim's chart) below it.

▼ Short Highest Probability

7580 Broken Demand Retest Short

Trigger: Bounce into 7570.75–7591.5 (Monday low and close, overnight open and high) that stalls with sellers absorbing, then a 15m close back below 7568. No shorting at 7546–7560 into the low.
Invalid: 15m acceptance above 7595, over the zone.
Targets: 7558.25 → 7546 → 7453

Structural invalidation 7613

▲ Long Second Opportunity

7546 Overnight Low Sweep & Reclaim Long

Trigger: Counter-trend only: a flush through 7546 by a few ticks that finds responsive buying and reclaims, then a 15m close back above 7550. Quick scalp, first target first.
Invalid: 15m acceptance below 7540, under the low.
Targets: 7558.25 → 7570.75 → 7591.5

Only If

7546 Breakdown

Trigger: Only if ES accepts below 7546, the 30-day low: a bounce into 7546–7552 that fails with sellers in control, then a 15m close back below 7544.
Invalid: 15m acceptance back above 7552.
Targets: 7453 → 7373

Avoid

Shorting 7546–7560 into the low after a 123-point reversal and a −3645 overnight. Sell the retest at 7570.75–7591.5.
Holding the 7546 reclaim long for a recovery. It is counter-trend in a down cycle; take the first target.
Picking a bottom on the way to the 200DMA. There is no measured structure between 7546 and 7453.
Normal-width stops. Ranges are 110–125 points; size down instead of tightening.

Focus · if → then

7570.75–7591.5 stalls → short → 7558.25 → 7546 → 7453
7546 swept and reclaimed → scalp long → 7558.25 → 7570.75 → 7591.5
Lose 7546 → 200DMA 7453 → 7373; accept above 7613 → down cycle paused, stand aside

Today's reminder

Down cycle, new 30-day low: sell the retest of 7570.75–7591.5, and treat any long at 7546 as a scalp.

How it played out

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Earlier plans

11/27665 Broken Demand Retest Short 10/307706 + 100DMA Rejection Fade Short 10/297784 + 20DMA Rejection Fade Short 10/287750 Break & Retest Long