★ Highest Probability
7585–7598 Hold Long
- Trigger
- Pullback into 7585–7598 holds with responsive buying and reclaim.
- Target
- 7613 → 7636 → 7648
- Invalidation
- Acceptance below 7585.
Wednesday 15 July 2026 · /ES (September Contract)
7/15 Trade Plan
Bias · Bullish Above 7585
Range Compression Beneath ATH
Key levels
7636–7648Resistance · (ATH Supply)
7613Resistance · ⭐ Major Supply
7585–7598Support · ⭐ Primary Support
7575Support · (50 DMA)
7533Support · (20 DMA)
7499Support
7472Support · (FOMC Low)
Context
ES continues to hold above the 7585–7598 breakout zone. As long as buyers defend this area, the bullish structure remains intact. 7613 is supply. Respect it. A reclaim opens the door toward the 7636–7648 ATH zone. Lose 7585, and expect rotation back into the moving averages where chop is likely.
Second Opportunity
7575–7533 Pullback Long
- Trigger
- Pullback into the 50 DMA (7575) and 20 DMA (7533) followed by responsive buying and reclaim.
- Target
- Rotation back toward 7585 → 7613
- Invalidation
- Acceptance below 7533.
Only If
7533 Failure Short
- Trigger
- Acceptance below the 20 DMA (7533) with sellers maintaining control.
- Target
- 7499 → 7472 (FOMC Low)
- Invalidation
- Reclaim above 7533.
Avoid
- Chasing longs into 7613 supply.
- Shorting the first test of 7585–7598 support.
- Trading between the 20 DMA and 50 DMA without confirmation.
- Assuming a breakout before price proves acceptance.
Confirmation
- VWAP aligned with trade direction.
- Delta confirms participation through reclaimed levels.
- Acceptance holds above 7585–7598.
- Break-and-retest structure confirms continuation.
- No first-touch chasing into 7613 supply
How it played out
The primary setup triggered and reached its first target.
triggered, then reached 7613. Measured from m15 bars, ESU6, confirm entry, close beyond the level invalidation. Not a fill, and not a return: see how this is measured.
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