★ Highest Probability
7472–7496 Hold Long
- Trigger
- Pullback into 7472–7496 holds with responsive buying and reclaim.
- Target
- 7530 → 7580
- Invalidation
- Acceptance below 7472.
Thursday 16 July 2026 · /ES (September Contract)
7/16 Trade Plan
Bias · Neutral → Bullish Above 7580
Range Rotation Below Key Moving Averages
Key levels
7635–7649Resistance · ATH Supply
7585–7598Resistance · Major Supply
7580Resistance · ⭐ 50 DMA / Decision Level
7530Support · (20 DMA)
7480Support · Overnight Low
7472–7496Support · ⭐ Major Demand
Context
ES remains trapped inside last week's range after defending 7472–7496 support. Price is now trading beneath both the 20 DMA (7530) and 50 DMA (7580), keeping the market in a balanced, rotational environment. 7580 is the decision level. Reclaim it, and buyers can target 7600+. Fail to hold support, and expect another test of the range lows.
Second Opportunity
7580 Reclaim Long
- Trigger
- Acceptance above the 50 DMA (7580) followed by a successful retest.
- Target
- 7598 → 7635
- Invalidation
- Failed reclaim back below 7580.
Only If
7472 Failure Short
- Trigger
- Acceptance below 7472 with sellers maintaining control.
- Target
- 7420 → 7400
- Invalidation
- Reclaim above 7472.
Avoid
- Chasing longs beneath the 50 DMA.
- Shorting the first test of 7472–7496 demand.
- Trading the middle of the range without confirmation.
- Assuming trend continuation before reclaiming 7580.
Confirmation
- VWAP aligned with trade direction.
- Delta confirms participation through reclaimed levels.
- Acceptance holds above 7530 and 7580 for continuation.
- Break-and-retest structure confirms the move.
- No first-touch chasing into 7585–7598 supply.
How it played out
The primary setup never confirmed, so there was no trade.
price never reached 7472. Measured from m15 bars, ESU6, confirm entry, close beyond the level invalidation. Not a fill, and not a return: see how this is measured.
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