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Friday 10 July 2026 · /ES (September Contract)

7/10 Trade Plan

Bias · Bullish Above 7602.50 Trend Continuation / Testing Major Supply

Key levels

7650Resistance · ⭐
7625–7632Resistance
7602.50Support · ⭐ Line in the Sand
7585–7590Support
20Support · DMA / 50 DMA
ATH ExtensionResistance

Context

Buyers successfully reclaimed and defended both the 20 DMA and 50 DMA yesterday, shifting momentum back in their favor. Today's objective is straightforward: hold 7602.50 as new support. If buyers can build acceptance above that level, the path opens toward 7650 and potentially another leg toward new all-time highs. The challenge is that ES is trading back into the same major supply zone that rejected price multiple times in June. This isn't a level to chase. Let the market prove buyers are in control before committing. If 7602.50 fails, expect rotation back toward the moving averages rather than immediate continuation.

★ Highest Probability

7602.50 Hold Long

Trigger
Pullback into 7602.50 holds as support with buyers reclaiming acceptance.
Target
7625 → 7650
Invalidation
Sustained acceptance back below 7602.50.; Why: Holding 7602.50 confirms yesterday's breakout and keeps momentum favoring continuation.

Second Opportunity

20/50 DMA Pullback Long

Trigger
Deeper pullback into the 20 DMA (7533.15) and 50 DMA (7562.28) followed by responsive buying and reclaim.
Target
Rotation back toward 7602.50 → 7650
Invalidation
Acceptance below the 20 DMA (7533.15). I chose the 20 DMA as the invalidation because it's the first layer of support. If price loses both moving averages, it has already lost the 20 DMA. This keeps the trade rule tighter and more actionable. If your intent is to give the trade more room, you can keep:

Only If

7600 Supply Rejection

Trigger
Price pushes into 7625–7650 and shows clear rejection, failed acceptance, or exhaustion.
Target
Rotation back toward 7602.50 or the moving averages.
Invalidation
Acceptance above 7650.

Avoid

  • Chasing longs directly into 7650 without confirmation.
  • Shorting the first test of 7602.50 support.
  • Assuming every rejection becomes a reversal while price remains above the moving averages.
  • Fighting the prevailing trend without confirmation.

Confirmation

  • VWAP aligned with trade direction
  • Delta confirms participation through 7602.50
  • Acceptance holds above reclaimed levels
  • Break-and-retest structure confirms continuation
  • No first-touch chasing into 7650 liquidity

How it played out

The primary setup triggered, then hit its invalidation.

triggered, then invalidated at 7602.5. Measured from m15 bars, ESU6, confirm entry, close beyond the level invalidation. Not a fill, and not a return: see how this is measured.

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Drawn with

RAIN High-Probability Reaction Levels$30 →RAIN Break & Retest Footprint (ES)$50 →

Earlier plans

7/97472 Hold Long7/87472 Hold Long7/67491–7512 Hold Long7/27532–7539 Hold Long