★ Prime Setup
7472 Hold Long
- Trigger
- Pullback into the FOMC low followed by responsive buying and reclaim.
- Target
- 7496 → 7521
- Invalidation
- Acceptance below 7472.
Wednesday 8 July 2026 · /ES (September Contract)
7/8 Trade Plan
Bias · Neutral → Bullish Above 7496
Pullback Into Major Support
Key levels
7583–7588Resistance · Yesterday's High
7552Resistance · (50 DMA)
7521Resistance · (20 DMA)
7496Resistance · ⭐ First Reclaim Level
7472Support · ⭐ FOMC Low / Overnight Low
7415–7404Support
7354–7330Support
Context
ES pulled back overnight into the 7472 FOMC low, finding buyers once again before bouncing into the open. Price remains below both the 20 DMA (7521) and 50 DMA (7552), meaning buyers still have work to do before regaining control. The immediate objective is reclaiming 7496, while failure at the FOMC low shifts the market back into a corrective phase.
A+ Setup
7521 / 50 DMA Reclaim Long
- Trigger
- Acceptance above the 20 DMA followed by a successful reclaim of the 50 DMA.
- Target
- 7583 → 7600
- Invalidation
- Failed reclaim back below 7521.; Why it matters: Reclaiming both moving averages shifts momentum back in favor of buyers and increases the odds of a move back toward last week's highs.
B-Tier Setup
7521–7552 Rejection Fade
- Trigger
- Price rallies into the moving averages but fails to gain acceptance.
- Target
- 7496 → 7472
- Invalidation
- Acceptance above the 50 DMA.
Avoid
- Chasing longs directly into the 20 DMA or 50 DMA.
- Shorting first touch into the 7472 FOMC low.
- Assuming the trend has turned bullish before reclaiming the moving averages.
- Trading the middle of the range without confirmation.
Confirmation
- VWAP aligned with trade direction
- Delta confirms participation through 7496 and the moving averages
- Acceptance above reclaimed levels
- Break-and-retest structure holds
- No first-touch chasing into the 20 DMA / 50 DMA resistance
How it played out
The primary setup triggered and reached its first target.
triggered, then reached 7496. Measured from m15 bars, ESU6, confirm entry, close beyond the level invalidation. Not a fill, and not a return: see how this is measured.
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