★ Prime Setup
7330–7350 Hold Long
- Trigger
- Pullback into major demand followed by responsive buying and reclaim.
- Target
- 7491 → 7512
- Invalidation
- Acceptance below 7330.
Monday 29 June 2026 · /ES
6/29 Trade Plan
Bias · Neutral → Bullish Above 7500
Range Bound Between Major Demand & Supply
Key levels
7567Resistance · (20 DMA)
7491–7512Resistance · ⭐ Major Supply / 50 DMA
7330–7350Support · ⭐ Major Demand
7300Support
7270Support
Context
ES continues to trade between two well-defined extremes. Buyers have repeatedly defended the 7330–7350 demand zone, while sellers continue rejecting every rally into 7491–7512. Until one side breaks, this remains a range market where the highest-probability trades are found at the edges—not in the middle. A sustained reclaim above 7500, the 50 DMA, would be the first sign that buyers are regaining control and could open the door for a move toward the 20 DMA.
A+ Setup
7491–7512 Rejection Short
- Trigger
- Rally into the 7491–7512 supply zone (50 DMA) followed by exhaustion, absorption, or failed acceptance.
- Target
- 7400 → 7350
- Invalidation
- Acceptance above 7512.; Why it matters: This remains the cleanest trend trade while ES continues respecting lower highs. The 50 DMA and nearby 20 DMA create stacked resistance, making this the highest-probability fade until buyers prove otherwise.
A-Tier Setup
7500 / 50 DMA Reclaim Long
- Trigger
- Acceptance above 7500 and the 50 DMA, followed by a successful retest.
- Target
- 7567 (20 DMA)
- Invalidation
- Failed reclaim back below 7491.
Avoid
- Chasing longs directly into 7491–7512 supply.
- Shorting first touch into 7330–7350 demand.
- Trading the middle of the range without confirmation.
- Assuming a breakout before the 50 DMA is reclaimed.
Confirmation
- VWAP aligned with trade direction
- Delta confirms participation through key levels
- Acceptance above reclaimed levels or below failed supply
- Break-and-retest structure holds
- No first-touch chasing into major liquidity zones
How it played out
The primary setup never confirmed, so there was no trade.
price never reached 7330. Measured from m15 bars, ESU6, confirm entry, close beyond the level invalidation. Not a fill, and not a return: see how this is measured.
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