Wednesday 24 June 2026 · /ES

6/24 Trade Plan

Bias · Neutral → Bearish Below 7462 / Bullish on Reclaims Corrective Channel / Sell the Rip Until Proven Otherwise

Key levels

7605Resistance · (20 DMA)

7552–7558Resistance

7506–7512Resistance · Major Supply / 50 DMA Reclaim

7462–7473Resistance · ⭐ Former Support → Resistance

7416–7419Support · ⭐ Channel Support / Overnight Low

7354–7336Support · ⭐ Major Demand Zone

7309Support · (50 DMA)

Context

ES remains trapped in a well-defined downward channel. Yesterday's low held at 7416, but buyers have repeatedly failed to sustain moves higher. Overnight, price found support again near 7419, yet could not reclaim above 7459, keeping the market pinned beneath former support turned resistance. Until buyers reclaim key overhead levels, this remains a reaction market rather than a trend market. Focus on the extremes of the range and avoid getting chopped in the middle.

★ Prime Setup

7462–7473 Rejection Fade

Trigger: Price pushes into former support turned resistance and fails to gain acceptance.
Target: 7419 → 7354
Invalidation: Acceptance above 7473.; This remains the highest-probability trade while the channel is intact.

A+ Setup

7506–7512 Reclaim Long

Trigger: Buyers reclaim and hold above 7506–7512, signaling a shift in market character.
Target: 7552 → 7605 (20 DMA)
Invalidation: Failed reclaim back below 7506.; This is the trend-change trade. If this triggers, the corrective structure begins to weaken.

B-Tier Setup

7354 Flush Reversal

Trigger: Sweep into 7354–7336 demand followed by responsive buying and reclaim.
Target: Rotation back toward 7419 → 7462
Invalidation: Acceptance below 7336.; Best used if sellers press the lower end of the channel.

Avoid

Chasing longs directly into 7462–7473 resistance.
Shorting first touch into 7354–7336 demand.
Trading the middle of the range between 7419 and 7462.
Assuming every bounce marks a trend reversal.

Confirmation

VWAP aligned with the direction of the trade.
Delta confirms participation through the trigger level.
Acceptance holds above reclaimed levels or below failed levels.
Break-and-retest structure confirms the setup.
No first-touch chasing into major liquidity zones.

How it played out

The primary setup triggered, then hit its invalidation.

triggered, then invalidated at 7473. Measured from m15 bars, ESU6, confirm entry, close beyond the level invalidation. Not a fill, and not a return: see how this is measured.

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Drawn with

RAIN High-Probability Reaction Levels$30 →RAIN Break & Retest Footprint (ES)$50 →

Earlier plans

6/227506–7512 Pullback Long 6/187552 Hold & Reclaim Long 6/177578 Hold & Reclaim Long 6/16Trade plan