★ Highest Probability
7585 Hold Long
- Trigger
- Pullback into 7585–7598 holds with responsive buying and reclaim.
- Target
- 7615 → 7637 → 7649
- Invalidation
- Acceptance below 7585.
Monday 13 July 2026 · /ES (September Contract)
7/13 Trade Plan
Bias · Bullish Above 7585
Range Compression / Bullish Structure
Key levels
7637–7649Resistance · ⭐ ATH Supply
7615Resistance · Overnight High
7585–7598Support · ⭐ Primary Support
7569Support · (50 DMA)
7537Support · (20 DMA)
7496Support
7472Support · (FOMC Low)
Context
Friday's sharp flush into 7552 was quickly absorbed, leaving behind a strong rejection wick and confirming buyers were willing to defend lower prices. Overnight, ES traded between 7566 and 7615, and is now sitting near 7601, right in the middle of the recent range. Today's objective is simple: hold 7585–7598 as support. If buyers defend this zone, the path remains open toward 7637–7649. If that support fails, expect rotation back into the moving averages where buyers will need to prove themselves again.
Second Opportunity
7569–7537 Pullback Long
- Trigger
- Deeper pullback into the 50 DMA (7569) and 20 DMA (7537) followed by responsive buying and reclaim.
- Target
- Rotation back toward 7585 → 7615 → 7637
- Invalidation
- Acceptance below the 20 DMA (7537).
Only If
7537 Failure Short
- Trigger
- Price loses the 20 DMA with acceptance and sellers remain in control.
- Target
- 7496 → 7472 (FOMC Low)
- Invalidation
- Reclaim back above the 20 DMA.
Avoid
- Chasing longs directly into 7637–7649 resistance.
- Shorting the first test of 7585–7598 support.
- Trading the middle of the range without confirmation.
- Assuming every pullback is a trend reversal while price remains above the moving averages.
Confirmation
- VWAP aligned with trade direction
- Delta confirms participation through reclaimed levels
- Acceptance holds above 7585–7598
- Break-and-retest structure confirms continuation
- No first-touch chasing into 7637–7649 liquidity
How it played out
The primary setup triggered, then hit its invalidation.
triggered, then invalidated at 7585. Measured from m15 bars, ESU6, confirm entry, close beyond the level invalidation. Not a fill, and not a return: see how this is measured.
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