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Monday 23 March 2026 · /ES · 30m

3/23 Trade Plan

Bias · Neutral → Bullish above 6,700 / Bearish below 6,659 News-driven expansion → testing acceptance below 200D

Key levels

6,780+ — extension if squeeze continuesResistance
6,747Resistance · 200D (macro level)
6,700Resistance · acceptance trigger
6,659Support · current base (decision level)
6,562Support · key pivot
6,523Support · breakdown trigger

Context

Massive headline-driven spike pushed price into the 200D (6,747) → rejected on first touch. Now: Holding 6,658–6,660 base Slowly grinding higher VWAP rising underneath (~6,570 → catching up) That tells us: Buyers are trying to build value higher But we are still below key macro resistance (200D) This is now an acceptance test, not a trend

★ B+ Setup

Base Hold Long

Zone
6,659–6,620
Trigger
Continued holds above 6,659; Higher lows / no sharp rejection; Acceptance above VWAP
Target
6,700 → 6,747
Invalidation
Acceptance below 6,620

This is the only long that makes sense right now.If it's real, it won’t lose 6,659 cleanly.

A+ Setup

Acceptance Break (Real Shift)

Zone
Above 6,700
Trigger
Break and HOLD above 6,700; No fast rejection
Target
6,747 → 6,780
Invalidation
Loss of 6,660

This confirms: Buyers are in control → not just reacting to news

A+ Setup

Failed Push (Trap Short)

Zone
6,700 → 6,747
Trigger
Push higher into resistance; Weak continuation; Loss of 6,659
Target
6,562 → 6,523
Invalidation
Acceptance above 6,760

Still your best asymmetric trade. Why? Because this entire move is still: Unproven + extended

A+ Setup

Base Failure → Unwind

Zone
Below 6,659
Trigger
Clean loss of 6,659; No reclaim
Target
6,562 → 6,523
Invalidation
Reclaim above 6,700

If this breaks: The spike starts getting erased

Confirmation

  • 1️⃣ 15m acceptance (especially 6,659 / 6,700)
  • 2️⃣ Reaction at extremes only
  • 3️⃣ VWAP alignment (now rising → important)
  • 4️⃣ No trades in mid chop
  • No trades inside 6,670–6,695
  • No chasing strength
  • No forcing conviction

Mindset

  • Let’s simplify your entire mental load:
  • You don’t trust this move…
  • Good. You shouldn’t yet.
  • So your job is not to predict.
  • Your job is to ask:
  • Is price ACCEPTING higher?
  • Or failing after the spike?
  • That’s it.

Best window

10–11:30AM

How it played out

The primary setup triggered and reached its first target.

triggered, then reached 6700. Measured from m15 bars, ESM6, confirm entry, close beyond the level invalidation. Not a fill, and not a return: see how this is measured.

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Drawn with

RAIN High-Probability Reaction Levels$30 →RAIN Break & Retest Footprint (ES)$50 →

Earlier plans

3/20Pullback Long (Cleaner Entry)3/19Neutral → Range until FOMC3/19Demand Bounce (Quick)3/17200DMA Reclaim Long