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Tuesday 17 March 2026 · /ES · 30m

3/17 Trade Plan

Bias · Neutral → Range at 200DMA Same range, but watching for expansion as M contract volume increases

Key levels

6,850Resistance · Major resistance
6,765–6,785Resistance · Range highs / HOD
6,700Support · Key breakdown pivot
6,675–6,660Support · Support zone
6,630Support · Lower support
200DMA (6,739) — Immediate pivotResistance

Context

We’re essentially in the same position as yesterday — price is stuck within range and sitting right on the 200DMA (~6,739). HOD: 6,784 Overnight Low: 6,715 Current: ~6,739 (on 200DMA) The key difference today is contract roll progression. As volume begins shifting into the M contract, we should start to see cleaner movement and better follow-through. Until that happens, this is still a range-bound environment, meaning: 👉 Trade the extremes 👉 Be patient at the pivot 👉 Don’t force anything mid-range

★ A+ Setup

200DMA Reclaim Long

Zone
Above 6,739
Trigger
30min close above 200DMA; Pullback holds as support
Target
6,765 → 6,785 (range high)
Invalidation
Loss of 6,720; Logic Reclaiming the 200DMA opens the door for a range expansion back to highs, especially if volume improves on the M contract.

B+ Setup

Support Bounce

Zone
6,675–6,700
Trigger
Controlled pullback; Buyers defend
Target
200DMA (6,739)
Invalidation
Acceptance below 6,660

A+ Setup

6,700 Breakdown

Zone
Below 6,700
Trigger
30min close below support; Failed reclaim
Target
6,675 → 6,660
Invalidation
Reclaim of 6,720; Logic Failure below 6,700 confirms range breakdown and continuation lower.

B+ Setup

Range High Rejection

Zone
6,765–6,785
Trigger
Push into highs; Rejection / failure to hold
Target
6,720 → 6,700
Invalidation
Acceptance above 6,800

Confirmation

  • 1️⃣ Directional 30min close
  • 2️⃣ Reaction quality at 200DMA / range extremes
  • 3️⃣ VWAP alignment
  • 4️⃣ Trade edges only
  • No mid-range trades
  • No forcing trades in chop
  • Execution Reminder
  • This is still a range until proven otherwise.
  • If the M contract volume kicks in, that’s when you’ll get the real move.
  • Until then:
  • Be selective → take the A+ → skip the noise.
  • SPY (30 Min)
  • We need to clear the 670/671.30 highs. We need to see holds above Fri/Mon highs. If we get that, upside continuation is possible into 674. Above 674, more freedom towards 680. Let's see if Thur LOD holds strong at 665.

Best window

10–11:00 AM

How it played out

The primary setup never confirmed, so there was no trade.

price never reached 6739. Measured from m15 bars, ESM6, confirm entry, touch-based invalidation. Not a fill, and not a return: see how this is measured.

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Drawn with

RAIN High-Probability Reaction Levels$30 →RAIN Break & Retest Footprint (ES)$50 →

Earlier plans

3/16Resistance Rejection3/13200DMA Hold Long3/12200DMA Support Long3/11Range Support Long