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Wednesday 11 March 2026 · /ES · 30m

3/11 Trade Plan

Bias · Neutral → Range until CPI catalyst Holding value above 6,777 while trapped below 6,850

Key levels

6,917Resistance · 50DMA
6,894Resistance · 100DMA
6,862Resistance · 20DMA
6,852Resistance · Range resistance
6,822Resistance · Overnight high
6,777Support · Primary pivot / range support
6,765Support · Overnight support
6,700–6,692Support · 200DMA / structural support

Context

Overnight price stayed largely inside value, rotating between 6,768 and 6,822. The key level continues to be 6,777, which has held multiple times and is acting as the immediate pivot. We briefly dipped to 6,763, then recovered back into 6,777, suggesting buyers are defending this area. There also appears to be secondary support around 6,765. On the upside, the market is capped by 6,852, keeping price inside a clear range ahead of CPI, which is likely the catalyst for expansion. Above that zone sit the daily moving averages: 20DMA: 6,862 100DMA: 6,894 50DMA: 6,917 Below the range, the 200DMA at 6,692 remains the larger structural magnet if support breaks. For now this remains a range environment — meaning the edge is still buying support or selling resistance, not trading the middle.

★ A+ Setup

Range Support Long

Zone
6,765–6,777
Trigger
Controlled pullback into the zone; 30min hold above 6,765; Buyers defend support
Target
6,822 → 6,850
Invalidation
30min acceptance below 6,765; This trade assumes the overnight range structure holds.

A+ Setup

Reclaim Breakout

Zone
Above 6,852
Trigger
30min close above resistance; Retest holds
Target
6,862 (20DMA) → 6,894 (100DMA) → 6,917 (50DMA)
Invalidation
Loss of 6,822

A+ Setup

Range Breakdown

Zone
Below 6,765
Trigger
30min close below support; Failed reclaim
Target
6,720 → 6,700–6,692 (200DMA)
Invalidation
Reclaim of 6,777; 🧠 Structural Edge (Sniper Entry Concept); The key structure today is the liquidity sweep → reclaim pattern.; Best entries come from:; 1️⃣ Sweep of a key level; 2️⃣ Immediate reclaim; 3️⃣ Higher low forming above the sweep; That sequence often marks short-term exhaustion of sellers and creates the highest-probability continuation entries.

Confirmation

  • 1️⃣ Directional 30min close
  • 2️⃣ Reaction quality at 6,777 pivot
  • 3️⃣ VWAP alignment
  • 4️⃣ Trade range extremes
  • No mid-range trades
  • No chasing CPI spikes
  • SPY (30 Min)
  • Look for pullback longs at 675 today. This would also be Thursday lows and Friday highs. If we fail below 674.60 and the overnight low, we'll see downside towards 670 again for a potential pullback long. Heavy supply starts again at 683 and the daily 100 and daily 20.

Best window

10–11:00 AM

How it played out

The primary setup never confirmed, so there was no trade.

price never reached 6765. Measured from m15 bars, ESM6, confirm entry, close beyond the level invalidation. Not a fill, and not a return: see how this is measured.

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Drawn with

RAIN High-Probability Reaction Levels$30 →RAIN Break & Retest Footprint (ES)$50 →

Earlier plans

3/10Sweep & Hold Long (Primary)3/9Lower High Rejection3/6Bearish Continuation3/5The "Higher Low" Bounce