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Friday 6 March 2026 · /ES · 30Min

3/6 Trade Plan

Bias · Bearish / Trend Following Continued weakness toward the 200DMA following 6,850 rejection.

Key levels

6,900Resistance · Psychological resistance
6,850Resistance · Major pivot / supply
6,800Support · Psychological pivot / breakdown level
6,770Support · Structural support / PDL area
6,740Support · HVN support
6,718Support · Tuesday low / liquidity
6,680Support · 200DMA

Context

Price rejected 6,850 cleanly, confirming sellers control that supply zone. We are now breaking down through the 6,800 psychological level, shifting focus lower. If buyers cannot reclaim 6,800, downside continuation toward PDL and the 200DMA (6,680) becomes the path of least resistance. Market regime remains sell the bounce. Until 6,850 is reclaimed with acceptance, strength is likely just lower highs. Breakdown sequence to watch: 6,800 → 6,770 → 6,740

★ A+ Setup

Bearish Continuation

Zone
6,800 - 6,790
Trigger
Clear acceptance below 6,800 (30min candle close).; Failure to reclaim 6,800 on a retest (wick rejection).; VWAP staying below price.
Target
6,770 (T1) → 6,740 (T2) → 6,718 (Runner)
Invalidation
Structural invalidation: 6,815 (reclaim of the breakdown candle).

The failure at 6,850 trapped late longs. A breach of 6,800 triggers stop-loss cascades and forces momentum sellers into the tape.

A+ Setup

Bullish Mean Reversion

Zone
6,855+
Trigger
30min close above 6,850.; Shift in market structure (Higher Low) on lower timeframes.; Aggressive tape buying at the 6,850 reclaim.
Target
6,880 → 6,900
Invalidation
6,835 (Drop back into the prior range).

Confirmation

  • 1️⃣ Directional 30min close
  • 2️⃣ Reaction quality at 6,800 / 6,770
  • 3️⃣ VWAP alignment
  • 4️⃣ Trade only at structure extremes
  • No mid-range trades
  • No chasing
  • No emotional entries

Mindset

  • 6,850–6,857 decides direction.
  • Below = fade rallies (Daily 20 is capping the upside).
  • Above = shift long (target 6900 re-test).
  • Trade the rejection at 6893 or the reclaim of 6850.
  • Avoid the chop in between.
  • SPY (30 Min)
  • Very clean rejection of the 100 DMA and 683. Looking for downside continuation today if we can fail below 674. Very major level 674 on the SPY. Would not want to be too aggressive short into it, but if we can fail below 674, we should get downside continuation quite aggressively. Cautious of the bounce off PDL and cautious of the channel between yesterday's price action.

Best window

10:00–11:00 AM

How it played out

The primary setup triggered and reached its first target.

triggered, then reached 6770. Measured from m15 bars, ESM6, confirm entry, touch-based invalidation. Not a fill, and not a return: see how this is measured.

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Drawn with

RAIN High-Probability Reaction Levels$30 →RAIN Break & Retest Footprint (ES)$50 →

Earlier plans

3/5The "Higher Low" Bounce3/4Higher Low Retest3/36,802–6,811 Rejection Short3/2Failed Bounce / Lower High (Primary)