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Monday 2 March 2026 · /ES · 1HR

3/2 Trade Plan

Bias · Sloppy / Range → Prefer rejection setups December low hold → Prior lows as resistance

Key levels

6,873Resistance · Gap fill
6,841–6,847Resistance · Heavy prior support → now resistance
6,832Resistance · Prior week low
6,814Resistance · Intraday pivot (currently weak)
6,771–6,748Support · December low / liquidity sweep zone
6,731Support · Next downside pivot
6,682Support · Major support
6,665Support · 200DMA

Context

We made a new low into 6,748–6,768 overnight and swept liquidity near 6,751 (Feb 5 reference). Key detail: We held the December low (6,771.50 area) and bounced to 6,831 before rolling back under 6,814. That tells us: Liquidity below December lows has been tapped. But we do not yet have higher timeframe confirmation of reversal. We’re still trading heavy and sloppy. Below here sits: 6,731 6,682 200DMA ~6,665 So yes — there is still room lower if structure fails again. The big question now: Was that a sweep for reversal… or just a pause before continuation?

★ A+ Setup

Failed Bounce / Lower High (Primary)

Trigger
Rejection at 6,814 or 6,832; Lower high forms; 1HR close back below intraday pivot
Target
6,731 → 6,682 → 6,665 (200DMA)
Invalidation
Clean acceptance above 6,847; The new low means rallies into resistance are more attractive than chasing breakdowns.; 🟢 Tactical Long — Confirmed Higher Low Only; The December low held once.; That does not mean it holds again.; For longs, I now need:; Option 1:; Clear reclaim of 6,832–6,847; Acceptance above; Then target 6,873 gap fill; Option 2:; Second test of 6,750 zone; Strong absorption + aggressive reclaim; Without one of those, longs are counter-trend scalps.; ⚠️ Support Note; Before:; Rejection of prior lows was the best setup.; Now:; We already flushed and made a lower low.; That increases odds of continuation unless we reclaim structure.

Confirmation

  • 1️⃣ Directional 1HR close
  • 2️⃣ Reaction quality at 6,832–6,847
  • 3️⃣ VWAP alignment
  • 4️⃣ Trade edges of the range only
  • Expect volatility
  • No mid-range trades
  • No chasing into major support

Mindset

  • Do NOT short into 6,750 blindly (liquidity already hit).
  • Prefer shorting failed bounces.
  • Only long if structure is reclaimed — not because “December low held.”
  • The market just expanded range.
  • Now we trade reactions — not assumptions.
  • Let price prove whether that sweep was accumulation…
  • or just a pit stop before 6,665.
  • SPY (1 HR)
  • The cleanest trade here would be a retest rejection of the Friday LOD at 681.64. This would be a really nice rejection, also off the daily 100 SMA. This looks like the best trade of the day, in my opinion. If we do reclaim Friday LOD, then we would likely gap fill up towards 686. The downside target would be back into the January lows at 676.57. Below 676, it looks like we could trade lower to the December low at 671.

Best window

10:00–11:00 AM

How it played out

Not scored yet. Every plan is checked against what the market actually did, and nothing is edited after the fact.

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Drawn with

RAIN High-Probability Reaction Levels$30 →RAIN Break & Retest Footprint (ES)$50 →

Earlier plans

2/276,931 Pop & Fade (Primary)2/266,931 Pullback Long (Primary)2/256,931 Reclaim Long (Primary)2/246,931 Reclaim Long (Primary)