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Tuesday 24 February 2026 · /ES · 1HR

2/24 Trade Plan

Bias · Neutral inside channel → Breakdown required Trap below Friday lows → SPY 100DMA alignment → Tight range

Key levels

6,925–6,931Resistance · 20/50DMA major supply
6,833Support · SPY 100DMA alignment
6,814Support · / 6,800 — Major demand zone
6,770Support · December low

Context

We extended the NTZ after ES trapped below Friday’s lows yesterday. That trap was largely influenced by SPY holding its 100DMA. That SPY 100DMA aligns closely with ES 6,833. I am cautious shorting directly into 6,833. Below that, we’re only ~20 points from major demand at 6,814/6,800 — too tight to force trades inside this channel. This remains compression until 6,800 breaks clean. Key pivots: 👉 6,931 (20/50DMA) 👉 6,800 (major demand floor)

★ A+ Setup

6,931 Reclaim Long (Primary)

Zone
Acceptance above 6,931
Trigger
Strong 1HR close above; Buyers defend pullbacks; Holding above 20/50DMA
Target
6,960 → 7,000
Invalidation
Loss of 6,931 after reclaim; Market upside only becomes valid above the 20/50DMA.

A+ Setup

6,800 Breakdown Short

Zone
Acceptance below 6,800
Trigger
1HR close below; Failed reclaim; Expansion in momentum
Target
6,770 → 6,750
Invalidation
Reclaim of 6,814; This is the level that opens continuation.; ⚠️ Caution Zone; Between 6,833 and 6,800 is tight, choppy range.; Not enough room to press size.; Avoid getting cute inside the channel.

Confirmation

  • 1️⃣ Directional 1HR close
  • 2️⃣ Delta confirms
  • 3️⃣ SPY confirms structure
  • 4️⃣ Trade only at range extremes
  • Best trades occur on confirmed breaks
  • No forcing action inside 6,833–6,800

Mindset

  • 6,931 shifts structure bullish.
  • 6,800 shifts structure bearish.
  • Inside the channel → protect capital.
  • Wait for expansion, then execute.
  • SPY (1 HR)
  • 100DMA was the exact LOD as we talked about mid-day yesterday. Very clean hold. Wouldn't look to long off this level, I would be more cautious about shorting into it.
  • Fails below that 100DMA could be the spark we need for the next leg lower into 676. Would be looking for that today.
  • If we maintain, we stay within the channel towards the supply highs again.

Best window

10:00–11:00 AM

How it played out

The primary setup triggered and reached its first target.

triggered, then reached 6960. Measured from m15 bars, ESM6, confirm entry, close beyond the level invalidation. Not a fill, and not a return: see how this is measured.

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Drawn with

RAIN High-Probability Reaction Levels$30 →RAIN Break & Retest Footprint (ES)$50 →

Earlier plans

2/236,931 Reclaim Long (Primary)2/206,850 Breakdown (Primary)2/196,863 Failure Short (Primary)2/186,863 Failure Short (Primary)