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Wednesday 25 February 2026 · /ES · 1HR

2/25 Trade Plan

Bias · Constructive above 6,900 → Bullish shift above 6,931 Higher low at 100DMA → Channel high attempt

Key levels

6,925–6,931Resistance · 20/50DMA reclaim pivot
6,900Support · Higher low / 100DMA alignment
6,833Support · Channel support
6,814Support · / 6,800 — Major demand
6,770Support · December low

Context

We’re seeing a higher low forming at 6,900, aligned with the 100DMA. That’s constructive. This sets up a potential push toward the top of the channel — but confirmation is required. The real pivot today: 👉 6,931 (20/50DMA) If we can reclaim it and turn it into support, structure shifts and continuation becomes valid. Below 6,900 + 100DMA, the bullish structure fails and we rotate back toward channel lows.

★ A+ Setup

6,931 Reclaim Long (Primary)

Zone
Acceptance above 6,931
Trigger
Strong 1HR close above; Pullback holds as support; Buyers defend dips
Target
6,952 → 6,980 → 7,000 (channel high)
Invalidation
Loss of 6,931 after reclaim; Turning 20/50DMA into support is the confirmation.

A+ Setup

6,900 Failure Short

Zone
Acceptance below 6,900
Trigger
1HR close below; Failed reclaim of 100DMA; Lower high
Target
6,833 → 6,814 / 6,800
Invalidation
Reclaim of 6,931; Lose 6,900 and structure weakens quickly.

Confirmation

  • 1️⃣ Directional 1HR close
  • 2️⃣ Delta confirms
  • 3️⃣ VWAP aligned
  • 4️⃣ Trade only at key pivots
  • Best trades occur on confirmed breaks
  • No chasing inside 6,900–6,931

Mindset

  • 6,900 defines structure.
  • 6,931 defines momentum.
  • Hold above → channel high attempt.
  • Fail below → back to channel lows.
  • Let the level confirm — then execute.
  • SPY (1 HR)
  • Higher low forming above the Thur/Fri highs of 2 weeks back at 686.26. This is a good setup for this breakout to attempt today. If we can hold over 690, I think you see a push into the 692.
  • We are holding the 50DMA, let's see if the 20DMA holds as well.
  • Fails back below the 686.26 would result in downside.

Best window

10:00–11:00 AM

How it played out

The primary setup never confirmed, so there was no trade.

price never reached 6931. Measured from m15 bars, ESM6, confirm entry, close beyond the level invalidation, levels shifted +0 from None. Not a fill, and not a return: see how this is measured.

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Drawn with

RAIN High-Probability Reaction Levels$30 →RAIN Break & Retest Footprint (ES)$50 →

Earlier plans

2/246,931 Reclaim Long (Primary)2/236,931 Reclaim Long (Primary)2/206,850 Breakdown (Primary)2/196,863 Failure Short (Primary)