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Thursday 26 February 2026 · /ES · 1HR

2/26 Trade Plan

Bias · Bullish above 6,931 → Cautious into 6,980–7,000 Clean 20/50DMA hold → Pullback opportunity

Key levels

7,000Resistance · Major psychological / channel high
6,980Resistance · Near-term resistance
6,925–6,931Support · 20/50DMA support pivot
6,900Support · Channel support

Context

We finally got the sustained hold above 6,931 yesterday — a level we’ve tracked for weeks. That reclaim of the 20/50DMA triggered a clean late-session expansion higher. Now the focus shifts: 👉 Best opportunity = pullback to 6,931 If that level holds again, it confirms the shift in structure. However, overhead sits heavy supply at 6,980–7,000 — a zone that has rejected price multiple times before. Not the place to press aggressive longs blindly. Lose 6,931 and we slide back into the lower channel, opening room toward 6,900.

★ A+ Setup

6,931 Pullback Long (Primary)

Zone
Retest of 6,931
Trigger
Controlled pullback; 1HR hold above level; Buyers defend with strong reaction
Target
6,980 → 7,000
Invalidation
Clean 1HR close below 6,931; This is currently the cleanest long on the board.

A+ Setup

6,931 Failure Short

Zone
Acceptance below 6,931
Trigger
1HR close below; Failed reclaim; Weak reaction into 20DMA
Target
6,900
Invalidation
Reclaim of 6,931; Lose this level and structure weakens quickly.; ⚠️ Caution Zone; Between 6,980–7,000:; Multiple prior rejections.; Expect volatility.; Not ideal for fresh aggressive longs.

Confirmation

  • 1️⃣ Directional 1HR close
  • 2️⃣ Reaction quality at 6,931
  • 3️⃣ VWAP aligned
  • 4️⃣ Trade only at structure pivots
  • Patience for pullback entries
  • No chasing into 7,000

Mindset

  • 6,931 is the battlefield.
  • Hold it → continuation.
  • Lose it → back into channel.
  • Good structure gives opportunity.
  • Chasing highs gives regret.
  • SPY (1 HR)
  • Pullback long at the 689/690 zone would be ideal today. Perfect retest of the double top highs & breakout point.
  • The 696.50/698 zone above will be tough. Would prefer to have a lower entry before heading towards those highs.
  • If we fail 689, watch the 20/50DMA below as support.
  • Below 686.26 the downside comes back in.

Best window

10:00–11:00 AM

How it played out

The setup triggered, but neither the target nor the invalidation was reached by the close.

triggered, but neither level was reached by the close. Measured from m15 bars, ESM6, confirm entry, close beyond the level invalidation. Not a fill, and not a return: see how this is measured.

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Drawn with

RAIN High-Probability Reaction Levels$30 →RAIN Break & Retest Footprint (ES)$50 →

Earlier plans

2/256,931 Reclaim Long (Primary)2/246,931 Reclaim Long (Primary)2/236,931 Reclaim Long (Primary)2/206,850 Breakdown (Primary)