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Wednesday 4 March 2026 · /ES · 1HR

3/4 Trade Plan

Bias · Neutral to Bullish V-recovery from Dec lows; watching 6,800 retest.

Key levels

6,930Resistance · Major supply; ultimate upside target.
6,873Resistance · Gap fill and Daily 20/100 SMA confluence.
6,850/6,857 — Thursday LOD; immediate supply.Resistance
6,800/6,804 — Primary pivot; prior resistance/reclaim zone.Support
6,771Support · December Lows; major structural floor.
6,750Support · September high; line in the sand.

Context

Market defended 6,771.50 (Dec lows) aggressively, sparking a vertical pre-market rally. Overnight, price pulled back from 6,849 to an ONL of 6,773.50, but buyers reclaimed 6,833 resistance. We topped out at 6,855 pre-market and are currently oscillating near 6,837. While the impulse is bullish, we are testing heavy supply. 6,832–6,837 is the immediate shelf to hold. If this fails, a deeper pullback toward 6,791 is the high-probability retest area. If 6,837/6,847 holds as a floor, the gap fill toward 6,870 becomes the primary target.

★ A+ Setup

Higher Low Retest

Zone
6791– 6804
Trigger
Clear acceptance OR rejection: Hold above 6791/6800 on pullback.; Timeframe close requirement: 15min candle close confirmation.; Confirmation condition: Bullish reaction (wicking or engulfing).
Target
6,833 → 6,855
Invalidation
Structural invalidation level: 6785; High-probability trend continuation play.

A+ Setup

Pop and Fade

Zone
6850 – 6857
Trigger
Confirmation needed: 5min lower high at supply.; Structural shift: Failure to reclaim/hold 6,850.
Target
6832 → 6791
Invalidation
Structural invalidation level: 6,865; Fading vertical exhaustion into heavy overhead supply.

Confirmation

  • 1️⃣ Directional timeframe close
  • 2️⃣ Reaction quality at key pivot
  • 3️⃣ VWAP alignment
  • 4️⃣ Trade only at structure extremes
  • No mid-range trades
  • No chasing
  • No emotional entries

Mindset

  • 6,850–6,857 decides direction.
  • Below = fade rallies.
  • Above = shift long.
  • Trade the rejection.
  • Trade the reclaim.
  • Avoid the chop in between.
  • SPY (15 Min)
  • If we can reclaim the 100 SMA today, we should see a gap close towards that Monday close at 686.38. That would be a nice reclaim long above the previous day high and the Friday low as well.
  • A pullback long would be at 678, the Monday low. That would be a nice spot to get a clean retracement and a better long entry. I would not short if we are above 674.

Best window

10:00–11:00 AM

How it played out

The primary setup never confirmed, so there was no trade.

price never reached 6791. Measured from m15 bars, ESM6, confirm entry, touch-based invalidation. Not a fill, and not a return: see how this is measured.

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Drawn with

RAIN High-Probability Reaction Levels$30 →RAIN Break & Retest Footprint (ES)$50 →

Earlier plans

3/36,802–6,811 Rejection Short3/2Failed Bounce / Lower High (Primary)2/276,931 Pop & Fade (Primary)2/266,931 Pullback Long (Primary)