★ B+ Setup
200DMA Hold Long
- Zone
- 6,697–6,700
- Trigger
- Pullback holds above 200DMA; Buyers defend the level
- Target
- 6,725 → 6,760
- Invalidation
- Acceptance below 6,680
Friday 13 March 2026 · /ES · 30m
3/13 Trade Plan
Bias · Bearish structure unless 200DMA reclaims
Testing the 200DMA pivot after overnight sweep lower
Key levels
6,850Resistance · 20DMA
6,763–6,777Resistance · Key reclaim level
6,697Resistance · 200DMA pivot
6,644–6,634Support · Overnight demand
6,596–6,584Support · March 8 liquidity zone
6,540Support · Double bottom support
Context
We closed yesterday around 6,696 and initially tried to stabilize around 6,680 before selling further overnight. The overnight session printed a low at 6,634, with buyers stepping in around 6,644, producing a bounce back toward 6,693. This places the market directly at the 200DMA (6,697), making this the key pivot for the session. Structurally, the market is still in a short-term downtrend from the 6,850 high on March 10, so rallies into resistance should be treated cautiously unless we see strong reclaims. Two main paths exist today: Hold and reclaim the 200DMA → stabilization bounce Reject below 6,680 → continuation lower toward the March 8 lows If the breakdown occurs, the next meaningful support sits at 6,596–6,584, followed by the larger double-bottom area near 6,540..
A+ Setup
Deep Pullback Long
- Zone
- 6,640
- Trigger
- Sharp pullback into support; Strong reaction from buyers
- Target
- 6,700 → 6,725
- Invalidation
- Break below 6,620
A+ Setup
Major Support Long
- Zone
- 6,583–6,584
- Trigger
- Test of March 8 support; Clear buyer reaction
- Target
- 6,640 → 6,700
- Invalidation
- Acceptance below 6,560
C+ Setup
Breakdown Retest Short
- Zone
- 6,693
- Trigger
- Break below support; Weak retest from underneath
- Target
- 6,660 → 6,640
- Invalidation
- Reclaim of 6,705
Confirmation
- 1️⃣ Directional 30min close
- 2️⃣ Reaction quality at 200DMA
- 3️⃣ VWAP alignment
- 4️⃣ Trade structure extremes only
- No mid-range trades
- No chasing moves
- SPY (30 Min) No change
- Potential lower highs between 674.76/676.11. Need to see us reclaim those Fri highs from last week. If we can, back towards the 20DMA is possible.
- Lower high here drives us back down into the 670 demand.
Best window
10–11:00 AM
How it played out
The primary setup triggered, then hit its invalidation.
triggered, then invalidated at 6680. Measured from m15 bars, ESM6, confirm entry, touch-based invalidation. Not a fill, and not a return: see how this is measured.
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