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Monday 16 March 2026 · /ES · 30m

3/16 Trade Plan

Bias · Neutral → trading levels during rollover Neutral → trading levels during rollover

Key levels

6,869Resistance · secondary rejection level
6,788Resistance · primary rejection zone
6,706Support · continuation pivot
6,656Support · overnight low
6,640Support · premier pullback demand

Context

We are currently in the futures contract roll window. The March (H) contract still carries the majority of volume, so many traders will continue referencing those levels. However, I will be trading the June (M) contract going forward since Thinkorswim auto-rolls to the next contract, and the structure and levels are cleaner to track there. Because of the roll, liquidity may be slightly thinner today and tomorrow, which can lead to: Less reliable mid-range price action Faster moves between levels Fewer quality setups That’s not a bad thing — it simply means being more selective and trading less. The market remains in a downward cycle from the 6,850 high, with resistance stacked above and key demand below. Today’s plan focuses on two primary A+ opportunities: a pullback long at deeper demand or a clean rejection at resistance.

★ A+ Setup

Resistance Rejection

Zone
6,788
Trigger
Push into resistance; Clear rejection / failure to hold above the level
Target
6,720 → 6,656
Invalidation
Acceptance above 6,805; Logic Market remains in a short-term downtrend, so rallies into resistance remain high-probability fade areas.

A+ Setup

Deep Pullback Long (Premier Trade)

Zone
6,640
Trigger
Sharp pullback into the level; Clear buyer reaction
Target
6,706 → 6,750+
Invalidation
Acceptance below 6,620; Logic This level represents the cleanest demand zone on the chart and offers the best risk-to-reward for a bounce.

B+ Setup

Overnight Support Bounce

Zone
6,656
Trigger
Test of overnight low; Buyers defend
Target
6,706
Invalidation
Acceptance below 6,640

B+ Setup

Continuation Pivot Long

Zone
6,706
Trigger
Pullback holds above level; Buyers step in
Target
6,750
Invalidation
Loss of 6,690

Confirmation

  • 1️⃣ Directional 15min close
  • 2️⃣ Reaction quality at 200DMA
  • 3️⃣ VWAP alignment
  • 4️⃣ Trade structure extremes
  • No mid-range trades
  • No chasing into stacked resistance
  • Key idea today:
  • The market is squeezed between support at 6,718 and the 200DMA at 6,735.
  • Whichever side breaks with acceptance likely defines the morning move.
  • SPY (15Min)
  • Thur LOD reclaim is important today. We are bouncing near the 200DMA on SPY, down at 659/660.
  • If we reclaim Thur LOD, we should see the move into 670 & Friday HOD. Very possible scalp back towards channel high today. Over 670, next level is 674.

Best window

10–11:00 AM

How it played out

Not scored yet. Every plan is checked against what the market actually did, and nothing is edited after the fact.

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Drawn with

RAIN High-Probability Reaction Levels$30 →RAIN Break & Retest Footprint (ES)$50 →

Earlier plans

3/13200DMA Hold Long3/12200DMA Support Long3/11Range Support Long3/10Sweep & Hold Long (Primary)