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Tuesday 24 March 2026 · /ES · 30m

3/24 Trade Plan

Bias · Neutral → Bullish above 6,617 / Bearish below 6,568 Post-news stabilization → demand test vs continuation into 200D

Key levels

6,747Resistance · 200DMA (macro level)
6,704Resistance · breakout trigger
6,700Resistance · supply / first major test
6,617Support · upper demand / pivot
6,568Support · demand low
6,560Support · breakdown trigger
6,470Support · major downside target

Context

After yesterday’s news-driven spike into the 200D, price is now stabilizing and attempting to build structure. We are holding inside: 6,568–6,617 demand zone Looking for a higher low to confirm acceptance That tells us: Market is transitioning from impulse → structured auction Buyers need to defend this zone to stay in control If this fails → the entire move starts to unwind Key idea: This is no longer about the news… it’s about whether price can HOLD higher

★ B+ Setup

Demand Hold Long (Primary)

Zone
6,617 → 6,568
Trigger
Pullback into demand; Higher low forms; Buyers defend (no clean break below 6,568)
Target
6,700 → 6,704
Invalidation
Acceptance below 6,560

This is the trade you want. If the move is real → this zone holds clean and rotates higher.

A+ Setup

Breakout into 200D

Zone
Above 6,704
Trigger
Break and HOLD above 6,704; No immediate rejection
Target
6,747 (200DMA) → Extension if accepted
Invalidation
Loss of 6,670

This is where things get real: Acceptance here = continuation day, not just bounce

A+ Setup

Failed Demand (Trap Short)

Zone
Loss of 6,568
Trigger
Break below 6,568; Failed reclaim
Target
6,560 → 6,470
Invalidation
Reclaim above 6,617

If this goes: Yesterday’s entire move starts getting unwound; This can accelerate fast

B+ Setup

Rejection at 6,700

Zone
6,700 → 6,704
Trigger
Push into supply; Weak continuation; Rejection back below
Target
6,617 → 6,568
Invalidation
Acceptance above 6,720

Still valid: First test of supply often rejects unless strong acceptance

Confirmation

  • 1️⃣ 15m acceptance at 6,617 or 6,700
  • 2️⃣ Clean reaction at levels (no chop entries)
  • 3️⃣ VWAP aligned (key for continuation)
  • 4️⃣ Trade extremes only
  • No trading inside 6,600–6,630 chop
  • No chasing breakouts without hold
  • No revenge trades

Mindset

  • This is a much better environment than yesterday—but only if:
  • Demand actually holds
  • Structure starts to behave normally
  • If it does:
  • You get clean rotations and real trades
  • If it doesn’t:
  • It turns back into noise fast

Best window

10–11:30AM

How it played out

The setup triggered, but neither the target nor the invalidation was reached by the close.

triggered, but neither level was reached by the close. Measured from m15 bars, ESM6, confirm entry, touch-based invalidation. Not a fill, and not a return: see how this is measured.

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Drawn with

RAIN High-Probability Reaction Levels$30 →RAIN Break & Retest Footprint (ES)$50 →

Earlier plans

3/23Base Hold Long3/20Pullback Long (Cleaner Entry)3/19Neutral → Range until FOMC3/19Demand Bounce (Quick)